Several rounds of severe weather swept across portions of northwest Iowa yesterday, from mid-afternoon hail to evening and overnight storms that left hail, winds, and heavy rainfall across parts of the state. I made a trip out to view the storms on two occasions yesterday, once during the mid-afternoon hours between 3:30 and 4:30 PM. This was the initial round of storms that produced some large hail from the SD/IA borders eastward to near Highway 71. Upon arrival to the storms, they were weakening significantly and led to only heavy rains that would obscure your view pretty good. On this trip we would also arrive upon an accident that occurred just west of Ruthven, IA where it appeared a vehicle may have been pulling out of a private lane onto the highway and did not see the cross traffic. A bad scene there as both vehicles were badly damaged, however, have not heard any news about this accident and how either drivers/passengers fared.
The second chase came during the waning daytime hours, from ~8:30 PM to after 10 PM across portions along the Dickinson/Clay county lines and back towards Wallingford in Emmet county. Several occasions of strong lightning strikes, and torrential/blinding rains with the multiple storm cells that we crossed paths with. On the backside of the last cell to be severe warned across these counties we were able to capture several occasions of 3/4" hail and strong east-southeast winds of 40+ mph. Video was captured from the dash cam for the entire trip, however, nothing significant to really note and share... A nice local chase/spot to add on for the year; now we'll wait for some true summer isolated cells to actually have some photogenic quality to the storms!
Friday, July 10, 2009
Wednesday, July 8, 2009
Severe Weather Potential - July 9
A complicated forecast is in the works for the next 36 hours, and perhaps even longer, for Iowa and adjacent areas. A strong wave will initiate thunderstorms this afternoon across the western Dakotas and areas of Montana/Wyoming. These storms should develop into a large MCS, possible derecho, during the evening and overnight hours traversing the Dakotas and moving into western Minnesota by sunrise on Thursday. This MCS will likely be making a right turn throughout the night as the low level jet veers, making the projected path perhaps into northern Iowa between 6-10 AM tomorrow. While the severe weather threat would seem minimal, gusty winds nearing severe criteria is a definite possibility.
As this MCS clears, a stable layer will be left over and likely inhibit additional development until the later afternoon hours. With a cold front and strong disturbance coordinate to create sufficient lift to break and inhibition that will be present across northern Iowa and southern Minnesota. With wind fields increasing in strength throughout the lower and mid-levels, expect deep layer shear to be sufficient for supercells as the initial storm mode with damaging winds, large hail, and isoalted tornadoes all being possible. However, with time and more forcing along the cold front it would appear that the growth of another MCS is likely, yielding a damaging wind threat across the central portions of the state. More details into the forecast will be clear tomorrow morning when the extent of the morning MCS is known... Expect an additional update late tonight and early tomorrow as to the possibilities of severe weather across portions of Iowa.
As this MCS clears, a stable layer will be left over and likely inhibit additional development until the later afternoon hours. With a cold front and strong disturbance coordinate to create sufficient lift to break and inhibition that will be present across northern Iowa and southern Minnesota. With wind fields increasing in strength throughout the lower and mid-levels, expect deep layer shear to be sufficient for supercells as the initial storm mode with damaging winds, large hail, and isoalted tornadoes all being possible. However, with time and more forcing along the cold front it would appear that the growth of another MCS is likely, yielding a damaging wind threat across the central portions of the state. More details into the forecast will be clear tomorrow morning when the extent of the morning MCS is known... Expect an additional update late tonight and early tomorrow as to the possibilities of severe weather across portions of Iowa.
Severe Weather Recap - July 7
A cluster of thunderstorms developed in eastern South Dakota during the afternoon hours yesterday, and entered into northwest Iowa during the evening hours. These clusters of storms were at times severe warned with the potential for both damaging winds and large hail, estimated 60 mph winds were reported and hail up to 1.5" in diameter also occurred. The severe weather was intermittent at best, with little in the way of damage reported.
I ventured outside of home for a short while as the leading edge of what was a bow echo entered the state in northern Emmet county. Upon arriving outside of Wallingford I did capture very brief video of a gustnado on this leading edge. I estimate the location of this gustnado near Dolliver, IA given its' distance away from me at that time. An otherwise uneventful night as gusty winds and heavy rains were all that occurred...
I will try to get a vidcap of the gustnado up at a later time... Along with a few panoramic images of the shelf as it entered Emmet county.
I ventured outside of home for a short while as the leading edge of what was a bow echo entered the state in northern Emmet county. Upon arriving outside of Wallingford I did capture very brief video of a gustnado on this leading edge. I estimate the location of this gustnado near Dolliver, IA given its' distance away from me at that time. An otherwise uneventful night as gusty winds and heavy rains were all that occurred...
I will try to get a vidcap of the gustnado up at a later time... Along with a few panoramic images of the shelf as it entered Emmet county.
Tuesday, July 7, 2009
Severe Weather Update #1 - July 7
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for portions of South Dakota, Nebraska, Minnesota, and Iowa until 10:00 PM this evening. This watch will cover the four corners of these states, thus including a majority of the counties within the Sioux Falls NWS CWA. Additional thunderstorms have formed outside of this watch area along a warm front/outflow boundary across portions of Iowa. These storms are expected to remain below severe limits, thus no watches or warnings have been issued for this area.
Forecasts and analysis of ongoing convection indicates that the severe weather threat for northwest Iowa will likely not come into play until the evening hours (after 5 PM).
Forecasts and analysis of ongoing convection indicates that the severe weather threat for northwest Iowa will likely not come into play until the evening hours (after 5 PM).
Severe Weather Potential - July 7
A trough of low pressure and possible weak low pressure center should be located over central South Dakota this afternoon. A stationary boundary should extend eastward from this low over parts of eastern South Dakota, southern Minnesota and northern Iowa. This boundary and low pressure center should be the focus for thunderstorm development this afternoon and through the overnight hours, with the potential for severe weather.
While current forecasts indicate that thunderstorms will be more likely to develop in South Dakota, and move into MN/IA/NE during the evening/overnight hours there is potential for development along the frontal boundary during the afternoon and this is supported by a few high-resolution models this morning. Any thunderstorms that do develop this afternoon across the northern plains of SD/NE/IA/MN may be capable of damaging wind gusts and large hail, as well as an associated weak tornado or landspout threat. Storms are likely to congeal into clusters as the evening progresses and move southeastward with time with more of a damaging wind threat through the overnight hours into IA/MN and perhaps northeastern Nebraska.
Additional updates are possible this afternoon as storms develop or initiation becomes more defined...
While current forecasts indicate that thunderstorms will be more likely to develop in South Dakota, and move into MN/IA/NE during the evening/overnight hours there is potential for development along the frontal boundary during the afternoon and this is supported by a few high-resolution models this morning. Any thunderstorms that do develop this afternoon across the northern plains of SD/NE/IA/MN may be capable of damaging wind gusts and large hail, as well as an associated weak tornado or landspout threat. Storms are likely to congeal into clusters as the evening progresses and move southeastward with time with more of a damaging wind threat through the overnight hours into IA/MN and perhaps northeastern Nebraska.
Additional updates are possible this afternoon as storms develop or initiation becomes more defined...
Wednesday, July 1, 2009
A Few of Natures' Fireworks Possible
With the fourth of July weekend coming up, it looks like mother nature will try to give us some of her own fireworks as we head into the weekend. A storm system will bring the chances of thunderstorms across the state on Friday, and continue through the fourth over a majority of the state. While the chances are fairly small currently, any storms that do develop are likely to be strong and potentially severe with damaging winds and marginally severe hail. These storms would at least cause some problems with any outdoor plans for Friday evening and Saturday across the state. An additional update before this weekend begins may refine any details on the chances for strong/severe thunderstorm across the state...
The forecast otherwise couldn't be too much better for the state... Thursday's highs ranging from the mid 70s to mid 80s from northeast to southwest; overnight lows in the mid 50s to lower 60s. Fridays' highs in the lower to mid 80s across the state will give way to thunderstorms chances across the western half of the state; overnight lows in the lower to mid 60s across the state indicate the increase in moisture across the state. The fourth of July will bring in more cloudy weather across the state, but highs still within a few degrees of 80 across the state. Slight chances of thunderstorms would appear to exist across the entire state during the afternoon, subsiding in the overnight hours. Saturday night lows near 60 across the state will make for an enjoyable overnight. We'll finish off the holiday weekend with highs in the lower 80s and lows in the low to mid 60s leading us back into the workweek.
The forecast otherwise couldn't be too much better for the state... Thursday's highs ranging from the mid 70s to mid 80s from northeast to southwest; overnight lows in the mid 50s to lower 60s. Fridays' highs in the lower to mid 80s across the state will give way to thunderstorms chances across the western half of the state; overnight lows in the lower to mid 60s across the state indicate the increase in moisture across the state. The fourth of July will bring in more cloudy weather across the state, but highs still within a few degrees of 80 across the state. Slight chances of thunderstorms would appear to exist across the entire state during the afternoon, subsiding in the overnight hours. Saturday night lows near 60 across the state will make for an enjoyable overnight. We'll finish off the holiday weekend with highs in the lower 80s and lows in the low to mid 60s leading us back into the workweek.
Friday, June 26, 2009
Severe Squall Line
A mature squall line that continues to be capable of damaging winds in excess of 60 mph and the potential for quarter sized hail is moving swiftly to the east across South Dakota and northeast Nebraska. Current warnings cover the entire length of this line from DeSmet, SD to Pierce, NE...
Along its' current track the line would likely enter southwest Minnesota and northwest Iowa just after 1 AM this morning. Northwest Iowa is most likely to see any damaging winds from this squall line as it enters the state. Those in northwest Iowa should monitor conditions with their weather radio as damaging winds can often cause trees to fall which can produce damage to homes, especially upper levels.
My current plan will be to grab a few hours rest before getting up and heading out ahead of this squall line if it is still in tact as it nears Dickinson/Clay counties. More than likely I will attempt some lightning photography as it nears...
Along its' current track the line would likely enter southwest Minnesota and northwest Iowa just after 1 AM this morning. Northwest Iowa is most likely to see any damaging winds from this squall line as it enters the state. Those in northwest Iowa should monitor conditions with their weather radio as damaging winds can often cause trees to fall which can produce damage to homes, especially upper levels.
My current plan will be to grab a few hours rest before getting up and heading out ahead of this squall line if it is still in tact as it nears Dickinson/Clay counties. More than likely I will attempt some lightning photography as it nears...
Wednesday, June 24, 2009
Severe Weather Potential - June 24
Quick update from the road today as I am returning from a trip to Ames to visit a few friends. Thunderstorms were widespread yesterday as they continued to move in from NE/SD during the early afternoon hours. Although a few tornado warnings were issued, these tornado warnings were for small vorticies that were confined within the larger line of storms as it moved across the state. No reports were confirmed of a tornado in the state yesterday, but wind damage was widespread through nearly the entire state with wind gusts nearing 80 mph in a few of the stronger storms during the afternoon.
Today's severe weather threat would appear to exist during mainly the late evening and overnight hours as storms once again move out of SD/NE and into western Iowa. A few rogue thunderstorms may develop in localized areas of convergence this evening and have the potential for damaging winds, hail and an isolated tornado. Otherwise it is likely that an MCS will form over eastern SD and continue east/southeast into northwestern Iowa during the early overnight hours. This MCS will likely contain damaging winds and perhaps some small hail as it moves across the state.
Today's severe weather threat would appear to exist during mainly the late evening and overnight hours as storms once again move out of SD/NE and into western Iowa. A few rogue thunderstorms may develop in localized areas of convergence this evening and have the potential for damaging winds, hail and an isolated tornado. Otherwise it is likely that an MCS will form over eastern SD and continue east/southeast into northwestern Iowa during the early overnight hours. This MCS will likely contain damaging winds and perhaps some small hail as it moves across the state.
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