Showing posts with label General Forecast. Show all posts
Showing posts with label General Forecast. Show all posts

Friday, October 9, 2009

Been A Long Time...

I kept telling myself that it had been a long time since I had gotten an update on the blog. And I figured as we start to see the first flurries of snow fall across northwest Iowa tonight that this is as good as time as any to give a nice little, welcome snow message.

I've been very busy as of late since my last updates... Been spending lots of time with my now nearly 5-month old son, as well as my new wife (got married last weekend). And trying to find work, applying for jobs, and actually working...

I shall try to get into a better routine now that a few things, like the whole wedding, are now crossed off the list. Hope those across the northwest half of the state can enjoy their snow flurries tonight and into tomorrow morning. Look for a few more shots of snow through the weekend before a warm-up looks to return to the state.

Sunday, August 23, 2009

Fall Already?!?

The past couple of days after a cold front passage have definitely had that fall feeling to them, with highs barely into the 70s for much of the state and lows being down into the 50s and even some 40s there in some portions of Iowa. The cool and calm nights led to some dense fog in low lying areas, but perfect nights for sleeping.

We'll begin to warm up today with high temperatures rising into the mid 80s along the Missouri River; and only into the mid 70s along the Mississippi. Low temperatures tonight ranging from the lower 60s to the mid 50s from west to east marking the increase in moisture ahead of our next storm system. Monday's highs will make it to the 80s throughout the state, from the upper 80s to lower 80s from west to east. Moisture will continue to increase across the state ahead of our next storm system, keeping lows in the upper 60s to lower 60s from west to east. We'll see the cold front push through eastern South Dakota and into western Minnesota during the early morning hours on Tuesday, and likely bring showers and thunderstorms to the northern third of the state through the early afternoon hours on Tuesday. While a few severe storms can't be ruled out given sufficient instability and marginal shear, it does not appear to be much more than a marginal wind/hail threat at this time.

Beyond our cold front passage we'll once again see high temperatures in the mid to upper 70s, and a few 80-marks through the remainder of the week. Low temperatures in the mid to upper 50s will make it a bit cooler than normal, but nothing that most will complain about given the nice sleeping conditions.

Tuesday, August 11, 2009

Much Quieter

After a busy weekend for portions of the state we have set into a much quieter pattern for the remainder of the week, with mostly sunny skies and temperatures in the upper 80s and lower 90s across the state. A weak ridge to zonal flow will be in place across much of the western two-thirds of the US through the end of the week. This is what will be leaving Iowa and much of the plains under sunny skies with warm temperatures. As we work into the weekend a trough enters the flow and will begin to affect the northern plains late Friday and continue through Monday. It is still too early to tell the thunderstorm threat, and specifically the severe weather threat with this disturbance.

Enjoy what seems to be the first full week of summer-like temperatures and conditions. Beyond our weekend disturbance long-range forecast models once again bring the jet stream well north and leave the plains in a weak ridge indicative of warm temperatures and mostly sunny afternoons.

A quick look back at Sunday's long lived supercell that progressed along highway 20 throughout the state, the Des Moines NWS has a nice page that shows a radar loop with storm reports. There is also a few pictures that were provided by the Fort Dodge Amateur Radio Association, you can check them out on the NWS page and below:

NWS Des Moines - August 9 Supercell Page





Thursday, August 6, 2009

A Few Rounds of Storms

Sunday night did bring a few severe weather reports across the state, mainly of marginally severe hail around an inch in diameter and several wind gusts of 60 mph or so. The wind was strong enough to take down a few trees and power poles in a line roughly along Highway 30 from Sioux City towards Fort Dodge. We've held quiet since then, with temperatures still a little below normal for this time of year.

We'll be able to change the temperature aspect and finally feel some good summer heat and humidity for a few days for this weekend. This will also bring us the conditional chance of some thunderstorms during the late afternoon and overnight hours beginning tonight, and likely lasting through the weekend. At this time it is too conditional to really pinpoint any good chances of a round of thunderstorms, but rather good to mention that if thunderstorms do persist or develop into Iowa they are likely to have a chance of some large hail and damaging winds.

Our first chance will be across western Iowa tonight as a potential MCS will swing by the state coming out of the Dakotas. An additional round of storms may also be coming into northern Iowa by the early morning hours as the threat of an additional MCS seems possible. After these rounds of storms have a chance to move through, a good setup will be featured over portions of SD/MN/IA for severe weather. However, the warm air at the surface will also translate into the mid-levels and may keep us capped from thunderstorms. Sunday also appears to have a chance of thunderstorms, with the likelihood of an upgrade of the severe weather risks issued by the SPC in later outlooks.

While dodging the rounds of thunderstorms, enjoy the warm and humid air as temperature soar into the upper 80s and 90s and dew points rise into the upper 60s and even 70s creating the typical miserable summer feel. Additional updates may be given if warranted...

Thursday, July 30, 2009

Cool & Calm July

Iowa has been both on the cool and calm side of the weather for the month of July despite a few events that have hit some parts of the state hard, including a few tornadoes and some very damaging hail across northeast Iowa last Friday. A rough and quick look at the mean temperatures over the month of July indicates that it is likely to be the coolest since 1992. For example, Estherville has a mean temperatures thus far of 66.8 degrees, which is second coolest since 1951!

The final day of the month looks to be just at, or just below normal for the state. We'll also get a good chance of some thunderstorms for the end of the month across at least the western half of the state. The severe weather threat appears minimal at the moment, but some small hail and gusty winds is not out of the question for the western third of the state. An update may be necessary if the potential for severe weather tomorrow night does increase...

We'll clear off and be near or just below normal for high temperatures once again through next week; low temperatures will be just below normal. A chance of thunderstorms and showers will work its' way back into the forecast for mid-week, otherwise it appears dry through the first week of August. The long range forecasts do indicate the possibility of a good ridge building into the central US through the first weeks of August which may finally lead to some above normal temperatures!

Friday, July 17, 2009

A Quick Recap

Busy days ongoing for me has created a good lack of updates on my part. Just to review back to July 14, the severe weather threat did materialize, although much weaker than initially thought due to only convection along the front firing during the evening hours. Did manage to punch through a severe warned cell between Wallingford and Ringsted on the way back from a playoff baseball game. This cell didn't really back much punch in regards to wind, and no hail was found. A weakly photogenic shelf cloud was noted, but not captured...

After the cold front passed through the state we were left with some below average temperatures that have continued into tonight. Current temperatures early this morning range from the mid 50s to the upper 40s! High temperatures for Friday should range from the upper 60s to the mid 70s across the state from northeast to southwest; lows overnight will drop into the upper 40s to mid 50s across the state once again. The weekend will stay dry with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s from east to west on Saturday, then from mid 70s to mid 80s by Sunday. Low to mid 50s for Saturday night temperatures, and mid 50s to lower 60s from east to west for lows on Sunday night.

We'll return to chances of thunderstorms and showers for the work week, with the best chances on Monday night in the west; Tuesday and Tuesday night for the central and eastern thirds, and the potential for a lingering shower or storm in the east on Wednesday. High temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s from east to west for the first half of the work week; with lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Look for an update on these chances of thunderstorms come early next week!

Wednesday, July 1, 2009

A Few of Natures' Fireworks Possible

With the fourth of July weekend coming up, it looks like mother nature will try to give us some of her own fireworks as we head into the weekend. A storm system will bring the chances of thunderstorms across the state on Friday, and continue through the fourth over a majority of the state. While the chances are fairly small currently, any storms that do develop are likely to be strong and potentially severe with damaging winds and marginally severe hail. These storms would at least cause some problems with any outdoor plans for Friday evening and Saturday across the state. An additional update before this weekend begins may refine any details on the chances for strong/severe thunderstorm across the state...

The forecast otherwise couldn't be too much better for the state... Thursday's highs ranging from the mid 70s to mid 80s from northeast to southwest; overnight lows in the mid 50s to lower 60s. Fridays' highs in the lower to mid 80s across the state will give way to thunderstorms chances across the western half of the state; overnight lows in the lower to mid 60s across the state indicate the increase in moisture across the state. The fourth of July will bring in more cloudy weather across the state, but highs still within a few degrees of 80 across the state. Slight chances of thunderstorms would appear to exist across the entire state during the afternoon, subsiding in the overnight hours. Saturday night lows near 60 across the state will make for an enjoyable overnight. We'll finish off the holiday weekend with highs in the lower 80s and lows in the low to mid 60s leading us back into the workweek.

Tuesday, June 23, 2009

Welcome Summer...

Apparently summer did not want to show up until it was officially ready, with Sunday being the first day of summer the state sure has heated up since. High temperatures yesterday ranged from the lower to mid 90s across the entire state, with plenty of moisture across a majority of the state to make it feel like temperatures were close to triple digits. Today will be similar, with highs actually getting a few degrees higher than yesterday in most locations. With high continuing in the lower to mid 90s, and even more moisture present today, heat indices will range across the lower 100s. This has prompted a majority of the state to be put under a heat advisory for this afternoons' heat.

Thunderstorms are a possibility across the state tonight and tomorrow, with a chance of a few storms even being near or above severe limits overnight tonight across western and central Iowa. These thunderstorms should be fairly isolated in nature, with marginal hail and damaging winds as the main threats. Temperatures will cool some on Wednesday with the passing of this system, but temperatures should still remain in the 80s across the state. Those temperatures in the 80s should continue through the remainder of the week, with continued high moisture leading to the warm/sticky days and enjoyable nights.

Tuesday, June 16, 2009

Severe Weather Threat - June 16

While some thunderstorms move across parts of central/eastern Iowa this morning, and some lingering showers/cloud cover continue across western Iowa, we are likely to see clearing skies and an increased chance of thunderstorms once again this afternoon/evening and potentially into the overnight hours. Temperatures not only today, but through the remainder of the week are likely to rebound nicely after morning convection and/or cloud cover. Highs into the 80s and 90s over the state are likely through Thursday...

A weak surface low is positioned across central South Dakota this morning, and is likely to only move slightly as we continue into the afternoon hours. Two troughs of low pressure are likely to extend from this low pressure system and create a moderately unstable warm sector for this afternoon across eastern Nebraska, eastern South Dakota, western Iowa and other adjacent areas. Moderately instability combined with a weakly capped environment should create ample development by the afternoon hours along both troughs in SD/NE and perhaps across Minnesota and extreme northern Iowa. While moderate bulk shear is present across the entire warm sector, directional shear appears to be limited over SD/NE/MN/IA where development is likely. Thus it would appear as if the main threats of severe weather will be for large hail and damaging winds with the strongest and more organized storm clusters this afternoon. Additional update are possible if the severe weather threat warrants...

The severe weather threat will likely continue for the northern plains on Wednesday, and continue through Friday. Both Wednesday and Thursday have warm fronts that will likely be positioned across Iowa or just south of the state warranting the risk for severe weather. Thursday will also have a cold front finally pushing eastward over the plains states with an increased risk of severe weather; a similar threat exists on Friday. Additional updates on these risks as the week continues.

Friday, June 12, 2009

Warming Weekend

After below normal temperatures and an end of the week that was both cool and wet we will begin a weekend that will start us on a warming trend! Rainfall totals across the state appeared heaviest across western Iowa where just over an inch fell in areas such as Sioux City and LeMars. Other areas of the state, especially the southeast, did not see nearly as much with only a few hundredths to a few tenths in the heaviest areas. Expect a few lingering showers over central and eastern Iowa tonight, and mainly cloudy skies over those same areas while parts of western Iowa begins to see some clearing skies.

Lows overnight tonight from near 50 in the northwest to near 60 in the southeast. Partly cloudy skies will prevail for Saturday, and with the sunshine we'll see highs in the mid 70s throughout the entire state. Saturday night will remain partly cloudy across the state, with increasing clouds over the west as we near sunrise on Sunday. Low temperatures will range from the lower to mid 50s from northeast to southwest. A weak frontal system will approach the state from the southwest on Sunday, bringing in more chances of showers and an isolated thunderstorm over the southwest half of the state on Sunday and Sunday evening. Highs on Sunday should be fairly consistent across the state near the mid 70s; with overnight lows in the mid to upper 50s from northeast to south. Our frontal system stalls out and begins to become diffuse which will decrease our chances of showers overnight on Sunday.

In the long range, it would appear that mainly zonal flow with embedded shortwaves will prevail over the plains states through the week. This will bring us off and on showers/thunderstorms throughout the week. Some slight ridging is expected to begin towards next weekend, with this expect an increase in temperatures as we near the upper 80s and finally the 90s across parts of Iowa. More details on this true southern warmth in next weeks' forecast updates.

Monday, June 8, 2009

Another Cool Week

Over the past couple of days I couldn't help but hear people whine about how 'cold' it was across northwest Iowa and adjacent areas that were north of the warm front that sparked off several rounds of thunderstorms. It is always ironic to me how people use the word 'cold' to describe the weather; if it was anytime between October and March then people would be very pleased and say that the past couple of days of weather has been 'warm'. Instead, just because we want to see temperatures in the 70s and 80s or even higher we start complaining that it is 'cold' outside. Thus, this posts title will be in regards to the continued cool weather that is expected for what looks to be the remainder of this week.

Today's temperatures range from the upper 50s to mid 60s across a majority of the state, while extreme southeast Iowa was able to stay in the warm sector for a while and saw highs in the 70s and lower 80s. We'll dry off tonight with low temperatures ranging from the mid 40s to mid 50s from north to south. The showers/thunderstorms will return to western Iowa during the evening hours on Tuesday; with highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s from northwest to southeast. The showers/thunderstorms will overspread much of the state overnight on Tuesday, with low temperatures in the 50s throughout the state. Scattered showers are likely to continue over the state on Wednesday, hindering high temperatures to the mid 60s to lower 70s from north to south.

Although there are a few rogue chances of a shower/thunderstorm, we should stay dry through the rest of the work week. High temperatures for Thursday and Friday should range from the lower to mid 70s. Low temperatures in the lower to upper 50s on Thursday night will increase a few degrees to the mid to upper 50s for Friday night.

Tuesday, June 2, 2009

Cooler Weather

Lows over the next few nights will be a ways below normal, while highs struggle and remain just below normal. Overnight lows tonight across the state will range from the lower 40s in the extreme northwest part of the state to the lower 50s across the southeast portions of the state. While partly to mostly cloudy skies remain across the state tomorrow we'll see highs ranging from from the upper 60s to lower 70s and northerly winds from 5-15 mph. Another chilly night is in store for Wednesday night, with skies clearing the lows will drop into the 40s for nearly the entire state.

Winds will begin to turn to the south once again on Thursday, and with partly cloudy skies highs will be back to near-normal from the lower 70s along the Mississippi to highs near 80 along the Missouri River. With meager moisture returning, lows overnight on Thursday will only drop into the lower to mid 50s from east to west across the state. We'll also see some slight chances of showers/thunderstorms move into the state for the overnight and continue through Friday night. Friday's highs will range from the lower 70s to the mid 70s, and overnight lows from near 50 in the north to the mid 50s in the south.

A blast of colder air will return for the weekend, and with that comes showers/thunderstorms across the state. More details on the weekend precipitation chances in the next update!

Friday, May 29, 2009

Severe Weather Threat - May 29

A weak cold front is positioned across northern Iowa this morning, and should slowly push southward through the morning hours to be positioned near/along the I-80 corridor by this afternoon. Areas along and south of this front will be in position to see strong/severe thunderstorms this afternoon and overnight. While some storm development along the front is possible during the evening hours, storms that develop across central NE/SD are likely to congeal into some form of MCS or cluster of storms. These clusters of storms should follow along/south of the cold front and be capable of damaging winds and/or large hail through the overnight hours across southern Iowa and northern Missouri.

Additional updates are possible this afternoon if development does occur this afternoon across Iowa, otherwise expect an update during the evening hours on the thunderstorm development across Nebraska/Dakotas and how those storms may evolve across Iowa overnight.

Otherwise expect partly cloudy to clear skies across the state, with temperatures in the mid 70s to upper 80s across the state. Additional strong/severe thunderstorms will once again be in the forecast for Sunday afternoon/evening...

Thursday, May 28, 2009

Feels like May!

After yesterday's high temperatures across the state in the 50s and 60s, along with cloudy and rainy skies, today is much of a relief for those wishing it would actually feel like May. Morning lows were on the chilly side in the mid 40s in the northwest, to the mid 50s across much of the southern tiers of the state. With clear skies overhead today, and only light northerly winds the temperatures will soar into the lower 80s across the western portions of the state and near 70 along the Mississippi River. Temperatures will only get warmer as we continue into the weekend, and the return of southerly flow will allow increased moisture as well. We'll see only partly cloudy skies through the rest of the week, leading to a wonderful start of the weekend.

Low temperatures tonight in the lower to mid 50s across the state, setting us up for highs on Friday from the mid 70s across the northeast quarter to the mid 80s across the southwest. Friday night lows from the lower 50s to upper 50s from north to south are expected as light southerly winds begin to pull in moisture from the south. Highs for the start of the weekend on Saturday will range from the upper 70s to upper 80s from east to west across the state. Lows overnight from the lower 50s to lower 60s from northeast to southwest... Previous forecasts had indicated the potential for thunderstorms on Saturday evening across parts of southern Iowa, however, current model trends continue to push the forecasted low pressure system and associated fronts further south into Missouri. If this model trend holds true then only a slight chance of a thunderstorm or two would see possible across southern Iowa.

Sunday should hold a different story, with a cold front beginning to work down from the northwest and warm/moist temperatures finally in place ahead of the front would lead to strong and potentially severe thunderstorm development during the afternoon/evening hours. Sunday's highs from near 80 to near 90 appears likely from east to west, with dew points approaching 60 across much of the state.

Thunderstorms would be likely along the cold front as it sweeps into northwest Iowa by the evening hours, and continued development would be likely across the state as the front continues to move southeast through the overnight hours. Moderate instability would appear to be present given warm temperatures and modest dew point values, however dew points would still appear to be too low to support strong surface-based development. For this reason it would appear that damaging winds be the main threat with storms along the cold front, with large hail being a secondary threat with any of the stronger storms. More updates on the potential for severe weather for this weekend and next week in later updates!

Tuesday, May 26, 2009

Return of Severe Weather?!?

A small area of 'See Text' as issued by the Storm Prediction Center covers extreme southeast Iowa today for the risk of an isolated brief tornado. This is in regards to a weak warm core low that has spun across Missouri the past two days, and is continuing to move northward near the Iowa/Missouri border by late this afternoon. The previous two days with this low have brought tornado warnings and even a couple of reports of tornadoes in extreme southeast Missouri on Sunday. Instability and shear are slightly weaker, thus we don't expect anything other than a storm or two that may be able to exhibit rotation across extreme southeast Iowa and adjacent areas. Other areas across the state should see isolated thunderstorms or showers through much of the day as they move northwest with the weak surface low. Temperatures will struggle with the cloudy and rainy conditions, only reaching the the lower 60s to lower 70s from northwest to southeast.

Lingering showers possible across western and central regions tonight, likely over the eastern third of the state. And then isolated showers across the state on Wednesday, and possibly into Wednesday night for the eastern sections of the state. We then look towards clear skies for the remainder of the week, with the only additional chance of thunderstorms coming into the forecast for western Iowa on Saturday. More details on these thunderstorm chances and the return of severe weather being possible for the plains states in later updates...

Wednesday highs in the 60s across the state; Thursday in the mid 70s to lower 80s from east to west; and Friday highs from the mid 70s to mid 80s from east to west as well. Tonight's lows in the from near 50 in the northwest to near 60 in the southeast; overnight lows on Wednesday night from the upper 40s to upper 50s from northwest to southeast. Lows on both Thursday and Friday night will be into the mid to upper 50s across the entire state, as moisture begins to be pushed into the state under stronger southerly winds.

Saturday, May 23, 2009

Wet Weekend

Memorial Weekend has been fairly wet and cool across northwest Iowa, as a cold front is draped across the state leading to showers/thunderstorms along and north of the boundary. Today's highs over northwest Iowa where rain and cloud cover dominated were only in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Other parts of the state saw plenty of sun and temperatures once again soared into the upper 70s to mid 80s.

These showers and thunderstorms will continue over northwest Iowa tonight, and a few sprinkles are also possible over the rest of western and northern Iowa. Lows from the mid 50s to mid 60s from northwest to southeast are expected. As the cold front works through the rest of the state, we'll see isolated showers over all but the southeast corner of the state on Saturday. High temperatures from the upper 60s in the north, to the lower 80s in the south are forecasted. A few isolated showers are going to be held in the forecast over the western third of the state through the remainder of the weekend; with high temperatures in the 70s through the state on Sunday. Lows on Saturday and Sunday will be in the 50s for the most part, a few 60s also will be seen.

We'll see showers and thunderstorms work back into the forecast for Memorial Day, and through Tuesday. Showers over the southern half of the state during the day on Monday, over the entire state for Monday night and Tuesday, and then over the eastern third on Tuesday night. A few stronger thunderstorms may be possible if moisture can be sufficient, more details on that may be available later this weekend. Look for high temperatures in the mid to upper 70s on Memorial Day for the state; low temperatures in the mid 50s to lower 60s overnight on Monday...

Sunday, May 17, 2009

Summer Arrives!!

After a weekend with near record lows, we now enter a couple of days with high temperatures that will be well above normal for late May. We saw our first hint of that today with temperatures across the state ranging from near 90 along the Missouri River, to only the upper 60s along the eastern portions of the state. We'll see the upper level ridge move further east over the next couple of days, allowing the entire state to see the well above normal temperatures. This will come with some negatives, as southerly winds will be gusty from 20-40 mph on both Tuesday and Wednesday. As for those highs, Tuesday will range from near 90 to near 80 from west to east; Wednesday from the lower 90s to lower 80s from west to east. Lows on Tuesday from the mid 60s to upper 50s from west to east.

A cold front will begin to drape into the state on Wednesday night, leading to some showers and isolated thunderstorms across northwest Iowa. This will also lead to some lower temperatures, with Wednesday night lows from the lower 50s to upper 50s from northwest to southeast. As the cold front slowly moves into the state it will begin to diffuse, and linger across the state for a few days. This will lead to sporadic chances of showers across portions of the state through the end of the week and into the weekend. High temperatures only in the upper 60s to upper 70s are expected; with lows in the upper 40s to upper 50s.

We'll see how the Memorial Weekend forecast plays out, but it looks to be around normal for temperatures; and we will be hopeful that we can clear out the skies for Sunday and Monday after a likely cloudy Saturday start.

In the even longer range, much of the talk between storm chasers is the lack of significant severe weather that appears to be forecasted for quite some time. Some chasers have even been canceling their latter half of May vacations that they were hopeful to chase on. We'll see if summer decides to show up early and end a lot of the significant severe weather chances over the central/southern plains.

Saturday, May 16, 2009

Freezing in May!?!

Unfortunately that statement above is likely going to come true tonight, as several National Weather Service offices have already issued Frost Advisories for parts of the state. Overnight lows last night ranged from the mid 30s across northwest Iowa to the mid 40s across southeast Iowa. Temperatures were able to stay slightly warmer due to the windy conditions and some scattered cloud cover. With clear skies and calmer winds today, temperatures will be able to warm nicely into the upper 50s to mid 60s across the state. While these temperatures are 10-15 degrees below average, the sun will at least provide some warmth for the state.

Under clear skies tonight, and unfortunately calming winds, the lows tonight will be able to drop into the 30s across the state. With much of the northern two-thirds of the state seeing temperatures at/below or near freezing. Record lows for tonight range from the upper 20s to mid 30s across the state, thus we should remain just above those record levels. Thankfully, this cold air won't stay too long as Sunday will warm up nicely into the mid 60s to lower 70s from northeast to southwest. The southerly winds will continue into next week and provide us with near average and even above average temperatures. A quick look at the highs/lows for early next week below:

Sunday Night - Low 50s to low 40s from west to east.
Monday - Mid 80s to lower 70s from west to east; southerly winds 15-25 mph.
Monday Night - Mid 50s to lower 50s from west to east.
Tuesday - Lower 80s to upper 60s from southwest to northeast; chance of thunderstorms.
Tuesday Night - Upper 40s to upper 50s from northeast to southwest; chance of thunderstorms.

Friday, May 15, 2009

May 15 Thunderstorms

The combination of a warm front lifting northward and a cold front sliding southeast will create the chance for thunderstorms across much of the state of Iowa from this afternoon through the overnight. A cold front is currently located over central SD/ND this morning, with a warm front draped across portions of northeast Kansas and northern Missouri. The warm front is currently being held fairly stationary by continued thunderstorm development across extreme northern Missouri and northeast Kansas; these storms should move northeast through the early afternoon with the chance of some isolated large hail reports. The warm front should slowly move northward, and may approach southern Iowa by this evening. Areas that are along and south of this warm front should see sufficient instability to promote severe thunderstorms, and given strong shear the storms may support tornadic development this afternoon/evening along/south of the front.

In addition to the warm front thunderstorms, western Iowa should see additional thunderstorm/shower development along the cold front that will move into the state this evening. Given such cold air aloft, some instability is expected despite meager surface moisture and temperatures. Given this instability, some isolated severe storms are possible with the cold front during the afternoon/evening across western Iowa and Minnesota.

Overall, it would appear that the state should miss the majority of severe weather, with only extreme southern Iowa being currently under a slight risk for the remainder of afternoon/evening for the thunderstorms north of the warm front. Areas of northern Missouri and eastern Kansas should be more favorable, with all modes of severe weather possible. Parts of southern Iowa may also deal with flooding given the heavy rains during the previous days, and the training of storms today north of the warm front.

Expect cooler conditions to prevail tonight and tomorrow, and near record lows being possible for Saturday night before we begin our warm-up for next week. Initial forecasts through mid-week next week indicate highs in the 70s and 80s across the state.

Sunday, May 10, 2009

Chilly Start

After the cold front and associated thunderstorms moved through parts of the state last night, temperatures were finally able to drop well below average across much of the state. Many woke up this morning to temperatures in the mid 30s in northwest Iowa, to the mid 40s across the south and east. The state won't warm up too much even today as cooler northwest flow continues over the state. Expect highs in lower to mid 60s across much of the state today, with low temperatures tonight falling back down into the upper 30s to mid 40s from north to south.

A slight warm up tomorrow, and continued warming trend through the week as thunderstorm chances are introduced beginning Tuesday night. More details on the thunderstorm threat and the chances of severe weather in later updates!