Fall Already?!?

The past couple of days after a cold front passage have definitely had that fall feeling to them, with highs barely into the 70s for much of the state and lows being down into the 50s and even some 40s there in some portions of Iowa. The cool and calm nights led to some dense fog in low lying areas, but perfect nights for sleeping.

We'll begin to warm up today with high temperatures rising into the mid 80s along the Missouri River; and only into the mid 70s along the Mississippi. Low temperatures tonight ranging from the lower 60s to the mid 50s from west to east marking the increase in moisture ahead of our next storm system. Monday's highs will make it to the 80s throughout the state, from the upper 80s to lower 80s from west to east. Moisture will continue to increase across the state ahead of our next storm system, keeping lows in the upper 60s to lower 60s from west to east. We'll see the cold front push through eastern South Dakota and into western Minnesota during the early morning hours on Tuesday, and likely bring showers and thunderstorms to the northern third of the state through the early afternoon hours on Tuesday. While a few severe storms can't be ruled out given sufficient instability and marginal shear, it does not appear to be much more than a marginal wind/hail threat at this time.

Beyond our cold front passage we'll once again see high temperatures in the mid to upper 70s, and a few 80-marks through the remainder of the week. Low temperatures in the mid to upper 50s will make it a bit cooler than normal, but nothing that most will complain about given the nice sleeping conditions.

Much Quieter

After a busy weekend for portions of the state we have set into a much quieter pattern for the remainder of the week, with mostly sunny skies and temperatures in the upper 80s and lower 90s across the state. A weak ridge to zonal flow will be in place across much of the western two-thirds of the US through the end of the week. This is what will be leaving Iowa and much of the plains under sunny skies with warm temperatures. As we work into the weekend a trough enters the flow and will begin to affect the northern plains late Friday and continue through Monday. It is still too early to tell the thunderstorm threat, and specifically the severe weather threat with this disturbance.

Enjoy what seems to be the first full week of summer-like temperatures and conditions. Beyond our weekend disturbance long-range forecast models once again bring the jet stream well north and leave the plains in a weak ridge indicative of warm temperatures and mostly sunny afternoons.

A quick look back at Sunday's long lived supercell that progressed along highway 20 throughout the state, the Des Moines NWS has a nice page that shows a radar loop with storm reports. There is also a few pictures that were provided by the Fort Dodge Amateur Radio Association, you can check them out on the NWS page and below:

NWS Des Moines - August 9 Supercell Page

August 9 Severe Weather Update #1

A morning supercell is moving through portions of central Iowa, currently just west of Fort Dodge capable of producing 1" to 3" diameter hail and damaging winds in excess of 60 mph. This storm has been severe for quite some time this morning, beginning near the Iowa/Nebraska border and moving east/northeast approximately 40 mph.

This storm has a history of producing 1" to 2" diameter hail and damaging winds, creating some blowing hail that has blown out windows of a home near Yetter, Iowa. The strongest part of this storm is expected to effect downtown Fort Dodge and may produce significant hail capable of producing damaging to vehicles, homes, and especially people.

Latest report from Callender indicates at least 60 mph winds, and close to 1" diameter hail that has caused roof damage and tree damage in town.

Cool & Calm July

Iowa has been both on the cool and calm side of the weather for the month of July despite a few events that have hit some parts of the state hard, including a few tornadoes and some very damaging hail across northeast Iowa last Friday. A rough and quick look at the mean temperatures over the month of July indicates that it is likely to be the coolest since 1992. For example, Estherville has a mean temperatures thus far of 66.8 degrees, which is second coolest since 1951!

The final day of the month looks to be just at, or just below normal for the state. We'll also get a good chance of some thunderstorms for the end of the month across at least the western half of the state. The severe weather threat appears minimal at the moment, but some small hail and gusty winds is not out of the question for the western third of the state. An update may be necessary if the potential for severe weather tomorrow night does increase...

We'll clear off and be near or just below normal for high temperatures once again through next week; low temperatures will be just below normal. A chance of thunderstorms and showers will work its' way back into the forecast for mid-week, otherwise it appears dry through the first week of August. The long range forecasts do indicate the possibility of a good ridge building into the central US through the first weeks of August which may finally lead to some above normal temperatures!

Severe Weather Update #1 - July 24

Both a Severe Thunderstorm Watch and Tornado Watch have been issued for portions of the state. Currently the bulk of thunderstorm action is confined to the northeast corner of the state where a supercell is beginning to take on tornadic characteristics and has prompted the tornado watch issuance. This storm has moved through areas of northeast Iowa with hail up to 1.50" in diameter and winds of at least 60 mph causing tree damage and at least one injury in Cresco.

While this storm is currently only severe warned, the latest scans have indicated rotation beginning to tighten and this storm may become tornadic within the next hour. With conditions continuing to become favorable for tornadoes, the SPC has issued a tornado watch for portions of eastern Iowa where this storms path appears to be at this time.

Additional development along the cold front across northern Iowa may occur through mid-afternoon, thus the severe thunderstorm watch continuing in effect until 5 PM for portions of the state.

A Quick Recap

Busy days ongoing for me has created a good lack of updates on my part. Just to review back to July 14, the severe weather threat did materialize, although much weaker than initially thought due to only convection along the front firing during the evening hours. Did manage to punch through a severe warned cell between Wallingford and Ringsted on the way back from a playoff baseball game. This cell didn't really back much punch in regards to wind, and no hail was found. A weakly photogenic shelf cloud was noted, but not captured...

After the cold front passed through the state we were left with some below average temperatures that have continued into tonight. Current temperatures early this morning range from the mid 50s to the upper 40s! High temperatures for Friday should range from the upper 60s to the mid 70s across the state from northeast to southwest; lows overnight will drop into the upper 40s to mid 50s across the state once again. The weekend will stay dry with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s from east to west on Saturday, then from mid 70s to mid 80s by Sunday. Low to mid 50s for Saturday night temperatures, and mid 50s to lower 60s from east to west for lows on Sunday night.

We'll return to chances of thunderstorms and showers for the work week, with the best chances on Monday night in the west; Tuesday and Tuesday night for the central and eastern thirds, and the potential for a lingering shower or storm in the east on Wednesday. High temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s from east to west for the first half of the work week; with lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Look for an update on these chances of thunderstorms come early next week!

Chase Account - July 9

Several rounds of severe weather swept across portions of northwest Iowa yesterday, from mid-afternoon hail to evening and overnight storms that left hail, winds, and heavy rainfall across parts of the state. I made a trip out to view the storms on two occasions yesterday, once during the mid-afternoon hours between 3:30 and 4:30 PM. This was the initial round of storms that produced some large hail from the SD/IA borders eastward to near Highway 71. Upon arrival to the storms, they were weakening significantly and led to only heavy rains that would obscure your view pretty good. On this trip we would also arrive upon an accident that occurred just west of Ruthven, IA where it appeared a vehicle may have been pulling out of a private lane onto the highway and did not see the cross traffic. A bad scene there as both vehicles were badly damaged, however, have not heard any news about this accident and how either drivers/passengers fared.

The second chase came during the waning daytime hours, from ~8:30 PM to after 10 PM across portions along the Dickinson/Clay county lines and back towards Wallingford in Emmet county. Several occasions of strong lightning strikes, and torrential/blinding rains with the multiple storm cells that we crossed paths with. On the backside of the last cell to be severe warned across these counties we were able to capture several occasions of 3/4" hail and strong east-southeast winds of 40+ mph. Video was captured from the dash cam for the entire trip, however, nothing significant to really note and share... A nice local chase/spot to add on for the year; now we'll wait for some true summer isolated cells to actually have some photogenic quality to the storms!

Severe Weather Recap - July 7

A cluster of thunderstorms developed in eastern South Dakota during the afternoon hours yesterday, and entered into northwest Iowa during the evening hours. These clusters of storms were at times severe warned with the potential for both damaging winds and large hail, estimated 60 mph winds were reported and hail up to 1.5" in diameter also occurred. The severe weather was intermittent at best, with little in the way of damage reported.

I ventured outside of home for a short while as the leading edge of what was a bow echo entered the state in northern Emmet county. Upon arriving outside of Wallingford I did capture very brief video of a gustnado on this leading edge. I estimate the location of this gustnado near Dolliver, IA given its' distance away from me at that time. An otherwise uneventful night as gusty winds and heavy rains were all that occurred...

I will try to get a vidcap of the gustnado up at a later time... Along with a few panoramic images of the shelf as it entered Emmet county.

Severe Weather Update #1 - July 7

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for portions of South Dakota, Nebraska, Minnesota, and Iowa until 10:00 PM this evening. This watch will cover the four corners of these states, thus including a majority of the counties within the Sioux Falls NWS CWA. Additional thunderstorms have formed outside of this watch area along a warm front/outflow boundary across portions of Iowa. These storms are expected to remain below severe limits, thus no watches or warnings have been issued for this area.

Forecasts and analysis of ongoing convection indicates that the severe weather threat for northwest Iowa will likely not come into play until the evening hours (after 5 PM).

A Few of Natures' Fireworks Possible

With the fourth of July weekend coming up, it looks like mother nature will try to give us some of her own fireworks as we head into the weekend. A storm system will bring the chances of thunderstorms across the state on Friday, and continue through the fourth over a majority of the state. While the chances are fairly small currently, any storms that do develop are likely to be strong and potentially severe with damaging winds and marginally severe hail. These storms would at least cause some problems with any outdoor plans for Friday evening and Saturday across the state. An additional update before this weekend begins may refine any details on the chances for strong/severe thunderstorm across the state...

The forecast otherwise couldn't be too much better for the state... Thursday's highs ranging from the mid 70s to mid 80s from northeast to southwest; overnight lows in the mid 50s to lower 60s. Fridays' highs in the lower to mid 80s across the state will give way to thunderstorms chances across the western half of the state; overnight lows in the lower to mid 60s across the state indicate the increase in moisture across the state. The fourth of July will bring in more cloudy weather across the state, but highs still within a few degrees of 80 across the state. Slight chances of thunderstorms would appear to exist across the entire state during the afternoon, subsiding in the overnight hours. Saturday night lows near 60 across the state will make for an enjoyable overnight. We'll finish off the holiday weekend with highs in the lower 80s and lows in the low to mid 60s leading us back into the workweek.

Severe Squall Line

A mature squall line that continues to be capable of damaging winds in excess of 60 mph and the potential for quarter sized hail is moving swiftly to the east across South Dakota and northeast Nebraska. Current warnings cover the entire length of this line from DeSmet, SD to Pierce, NE...

Along its' current track the line would likely enter southwest Minnesota and northwest Iowa just after 1 AM this morning. Northwest Iowa is most likely to see any damaging winds from this squall line as it enters the state. Those in northwest Iowa should monitor conditions with their weather radio as damaging winds can often cause trees to fall which can produce damage to homes, especially upper levels.

My current plan will be to grab a few hours rest before getting up and heading out ahead of this squall line if it is still in tact as it nears Dickinson/Clay counties. More than likely I will attempt some lightning photography as it nears...

Severe Weather Potential - June 24

Quick update from the road today as I am returning from a trip to Ames to visit a few friends. Thunderstorms were widespread yesterday as they continued to move in from NE/SD during the early afternoon hours. Although a few tornado warnings were issued, these tornado warnings were for small vorticies that were confined within the larger line of storms as it moved across the state. No reports were confirmed of a tornado in the state yesterday, but wind damage was widespread through nearly the entire state with wind gusts nearing 80 mph in a few of the stronger storms during the afternoon.

Today's severe weather threat would appear to exist during mainly the late evening and overnight hours as storms once again move out of SD/NE and into western Iowa. A few rogue thunderstorms may develop in localized areas of convergence this evening and have the potential for damaging winds, hail and an isolated tornado. Otherwise it is likely that an MCS will form over eastern SD and continue east/southeast into northwestern Iowa during the early overnight hours. This MCS will likely contain damaging winds and perhaps some small hail as it moves across the state.

Welcome Summer...

Apparently summer did not want to show up until it was officially ready, with Sunday being the first day of summer the state sure has heated up since. High temperatures yesterday ranged from the lower to mid 90s across the entire state, with plenty of moisture across a majority of the state to make it feel like temperatures were close to triple digits. Today will be similar, with highs actually getting a few degrees higher than yesterday in most locations. With high continuing in the lower to mid 90s, and even more moisture present today, heat indices will range across the lower 100s. This has prompted a majority of the state to be put under a heat advisory for this afternoons' heat.

Thunderstorms are a possibility across the state tonight and tomorrow, with a chance of a few storms even being near or above severe limits overnight tonight across western and central Iowa. These thunderstorms should be fairly isolated in nature, with marginal hail and damaging winds as the main threats. Temperatures will cool some on Wednesday with the passing of this system, but temperatures should still remain in the 80s across the state. Those temperatures in the 80s should continue through the remainder of the week, with continued high moisture leading to the warm/sticky days and enjoyable nights.

Iowa Upsets Chasers

Once again the state of Iowa has upset the chasing community with its' lack of cooperation over the past two days. Two straight days of moderate risk, and two straight days of utter disappointment for any storm chaser that was in the state. Both setups featured their own caveats, and both featured the opportunities for greatness, but both days have their caveats win out with no tornado reports and perhaps the highlight of a shelf cloud and some impressive winds this afternoon in southeast Iowa.

Thursday's setup featured a warm front which pushed well north of the state, leaving the state under a heavy capping inhibition between 850 hPa and 700 hPa. With no warm front to help trigger thunderstorms, only a weak remnant outflow boundary had an opportunity for greatness. Although it tried with several cumulus fields attempting to bubble up through the capping inversion, none would ever succeed. Thus, tack a point up for capping inversions with 12C temperatures at 700 hPa over Iowa as a bad chase day.

Today's (Friday) setup finally featured a strong trigger for convection as a cold front moved through the state, and an outflow boundary once again was expected to allow low level winds to remain southeasterly and aid in low level shear. The disappointment would come with winds remaining southwesterly ahead of the cold front, and the lack of a capping inversion allowing the whole cold front to be socked in with showers/storms from Noon onward. At least there were thunderstorms, albeit outflow dominant, that would let you chase something! Wind reports were consistent with at least three separate thunderstorms today, with winds ranging from 60-85 mph across eastern Iowa. Still, a day that would have offered tornado potential for the state would be ruined by a cold front with little inhibition and the lack of cooperation of the surface winds.

If anything can be learned from the past two days, trust instincts that a 12-13C temperature at 700hPa and no strong convergence in the lower levels will lead to nothing but struggling cumulus or blue skies. And, when a cold front comes into the state then you need the 12C temperature at 700hPa along with some southeast if not at least south winds to provide low level shear.

Here's to the hope that the more summer-like thunderstorms can provide some punch for the state with at least some great lightning and supercellular structure!!

Chasing Live!!

Currently on Highway 18 just east of Cylinder, IA and will likely continue east towards Algona before sitting and waiting for a bit longer. Parameters look amazing, and once the cap is able to go then we should see very explosive development of supercells capable of significant tornadoes and hail.

Be sure to watch the chase live via the spotter network maps, the latest radar update from my laptop, and live video from my dash on the Iowa Chaser Live Chase Page!!

Significant Severe Weather - June 18

The updated SPC Day 1 outlook will continue the moderate risk of severe weather across much of northern Iowa and southern Minnesota. There is a significant risk of damaging winds, very large hail, and tornadoes across the area today. In fact, the updated outlook has increased the probability of tornadoes over northern Iowa and southern Minnesota. The morning thunderstorms will actually help increase the risk of tornadoes this afternoon/evening as the outflow boundary left in its' wake will interact with the warm front to create substantial low level shear. This would appear to once again be a very dangerous and life threatening situation over areas of the plains states today.

I will be chasing today across northwest Iowa, this blog will have the latest updates as I can provide them. As we near the afternoon initiation you may be able to view live video from my vehicle as well as track my location via the Iowa Chaser LIVE Chase Page.

Next update in regards to afternoon chasing and severe weather is expected in the early afternoon hours.

Morning Severe

The SPC has issued a new severe thunderstorm watch for northern Iowa as a line of thunderstorms with a history of large hail and damaging winds is moving across northwest Iowa currently and is expected to remain severe through the morning hours. This watch will be in effect until 11:00 AM and cover the areas shown below:

Morning Bow Echo

Thunderstorms cleared the state during the overnight hours, but not before providing several reports of hail and damaging winds as well as a tornado report in northeastern Iowa during yesterday evening.

Early this morning there is a bow echo that is entering northwest Iowa with the potential for damaging winds in excess of 60 mph. This storm has had a history of damaging wind gusts as well as marginally severe hail. The bow echo is a line of storms extending from near Beresford, SD southwards to near Pender, NE; and is moving east/northeast at 35 mph. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for portions of northwest Iowa until 9 am for this line of thunderstorms.

This line of storms does appear to travel towards my location, thus will plan for its' arrival between 8:30 and 9:00 AM with the likelihood of a photogenic shelf cloud.

Severe Weather Update #2 - June 17

The weak boundary is responsible for several ongoing tornadic storms over north-central and northeast Iowa as well as southern Minnesota. Currently Chickasaw county has a tornado warned storm that has produced a tornado before within the past hour, and this storm may continue to produce tornadoes as it moves to the southeast. Another, perhaps more dangerous storm, is moving into Mitchell and Howard counties in Iowa. This storm has produced a large and dangerous tornado that is responsible for injuries across Austin, MN and nearby areas. These storms are likely to continue to be tornadic in nature for at least the next hour or two. After which the instability may begin to weaken in those areas and we may see the storms weaken... Persons in those areas should be very aware of the conditions and take shelter if any storms approach.

Additional thunderstorms have fired across northeast Nebraska and into southeast South Dakota. Given environmental conditions ahead of these thunderstorms, they are likely to maintain a severe weather threat into the overnight hours. Areas of west-central and northwest Iowa are likely to see these storms as they have the potential to produce significant severe weather. Additional updates are likely as storms continue to threaten areas of the state.

Severe Weather Update #1 - June 17

Severe and now tornadic thunderstorms are ongoing with the stronger warm front located along the Kansas/Nebraska border. Additional storms are likely as we continue through the afternoon and eventually congeal into more of a cluster or MCS of storms moving into west-central and southwest Iowa.

The other area of concern for severe weather, including tornadoes, will be over northwest/north-central Iowa where a convergent low level boundary associated with a weak low pressure system over South Dakota may trigger thunderstorms this afternoon/evening. Latest analysis indicates this wind shift is becoming very defined with strong instability along and east of the boundary. Effective wind shear values above 40 kts will support supercells when initiation occurs, and likely support tornadic storms through the evening hours.

I plan on chasing any development along this wind shift and weak boundary in northwest Iowa, thus stay tuned for additional updates!