Snowstorm Updates...

As a potentially significant winter storm enters the forecast for the plains states, I will post updates regarding the forecast and updates as the storm begins to impact the area.

These updates will of course be updated on my new blog:

Severe Plains

NEW BLOG -- Update Links

Well I am beginning a transition to a new blog, and eventually a new website. With the completion of my meteorology degree, and the start of my family I will likely be leaving the state of Iowa within some amount of time. Thus the need to change my site away from its' association to Iowa...

To check out the new blog, please go to the following link and let me know what you think. The new layout (still in work), as well as the new color choice(s). I hope to refine it in the coming weeks to something that is suitable to the readers, so please give some comments! Thanks

New Blog - Severe Plains Blog

Been A Long Time...

I kept telling myself that it had been a long time since I had gotten an update on the blog. And I figured as we start to see the first flurries of snow fall across northwest Iowa tonight that this is as good as time as any to give a nice little, welcome snow message.

I've been very busy as of late since my last updates... Been spending lots of time with my now nearly 5-month old son, as well as my new wife (got married last weekend). And trying to find work, applying for jobs, and actually working...

I shall try to get into a better routine now that a few things, like the whole wedding, are now crossed off the list. Hope those across the northwest half of the state can enjoy their snow flurries tonight and into tomorrow morning. Look for a few more shots of snow through the weekend before a warm-up looks to return to the state.

Fall Already?!?

The past couple of days after a cold front passage have definitely had that fall feeling to them, with highs barely into the 70s for much of the state and lows being down into the 50s and even some 40s there in some portions of Iowa. The cool and calm nights led to some dense fog in low lying areas, but perfect nights for sleeping.

We'll begin to warm up today with high temperatures rising into the mid 80s along the Missouri River; and only into the mid 70s along the Mississippi. Low temperatures tonight ranging from the lower 60s to the mid 50s from west to east marking the increase in moisture ahead of our next storm system. Monday's highs will make it to the 80s throughout the state, from the upper 80s to lower 80s from west to east. Moisture will continue to increase across the state ahead of our next storm system, keeping lows in the upper 60s to lower 60s from west to east. We'll see the cold front push through eastern South Dakota and into western Minnesota during the early morning hours on Tuesday, and likely bring showers and thunderstorms to the northern third of the state through the early afternoon hours on Tuesday. While a few severe storms can't be ruled out given sufficient instability and marginal shear, it does not appear to be much more than a marginal wind/hail threat at this time.

Beyond our cold front passage we'll once again see high temperatures in the mid to upper 70s, and a few 80-marks through the remainder of the week. Low temperatures in the mid to upper 50s will make it a bit cooler than normal, but nothing that most will complain about given the nice sleeping conditions.

Much Quieter

After a busy weekend for portions of the state we have set into a much quieter pattern for the remainder of the week, with mostly sunny skies and temperatures in the upper 80s and lower 90s across the state. A weak ridge to zonal flow will be in place across much of the western two-thirds of the US through the end of the week. This is what will be leaving Iowa and much of the plains under sunny skies with warm temperatures. As we work into the weekend a trough enters the flow and will begin to affect the northern plains late Friday and continue through Monday. It is still too early to tell the thunderstorm threat, and specifically the severe weather threat with this disturbance.

Enjoy what seems to be the first full week of summer-like temperatures and conditions. Beyond our weekend disturbance long-range forecast models once again bring the jet stream well north and leave the plains in a weak ridge indicative of warm temperatures and mostly sunny afternoons.

A quick look back at Sunday's long lived supercell that progressed along highway 20 throughout the state, the Des Moines NWS has a nice page that shows a radar loop with storm reports. There is also a few pictures that were provided by the Fort Dodge Amateur Radio Association, you can check them out on the NWS page and below:

NWS Des Moines - August 9 Supercell Page

August 9 Severe Weather Update #1

A morning supercell is moving through portions of central Iowa, currently just west of Fort Dodge capable of producing 1" to 3" diameter hail and damaging winds in excess of 60 mph. This storm has been severe for quite some time this morning, beginning near the Iowa/Nebraska border and moving east/northeast approximately 40 mph.

This storm has a history of producing 1" to 2" diameter hail and damaging winds, creating some blowing hail that has blown out windows of a home near Yetter, Iowa. The strongest part of this storm is expected to effect downtown Fort Dodge and may produce significant hail capable of producing damaging to vehicles, homes, and especially people.

Latest report from Callender indicates at least 60 mph winds, and close to 1" diameter hail that has caused roof damage and tree damage in town.

Severe Weather Potential - August 7 Update #3

Despite the hopes for convection before sunset, it does not appear likely as sunset is within an hour or two and there is not even a watch issued for potential development. Some cumulus is occurring in the warm sector, however, temperatures at 700hPa have increased to 14C directly over the most likely area for development. This is suppressing any chance of convection until at least after sundown across the area...

Thunderstorm development is still possible along the front as the low level jet increases slightly and we see the decoupling of the boundary layer. The tornadic threat with this development will be fairly minimal, with a large hail threat, and a more likely damaging wind threat across portions of southeast South Dakota and then across northern Iowa and southern Minnesota. An additional update is possible, but only if development can actually occur.

Once again Iowa has went and gone off to disappoint the severe weather lovers across the northern plains!

Severe Weather Potential - August 7 Update #2

Convective inhibition remains strong, however, confidence has increased that the inhibition will yield to convection during the late afternoon or evening hours across portions of the warm front in South Dakota and Iowa. Thunderstorms that do develop are likely to be supercellular with the threat for very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes given good low level shear and strong instability.

Just a short update... Expect to leave for a chase target in vicinity of Storm Lake, IA in approximately an hour. Storm initiation by 7 PM along the warm front in vicinity of prolonged strong low level convergence that is occurring in this area. Storms should follow this warm front, tapping into strong instability and good shear parameters leading to a continued tornado threat through 9 PM. Eventual evolution to a cluster or linear segments is expected beyond 10 PM with more of a damaging wind threat.

Severe Weather Potential - August 7 Update #1

Not much for changes in the going forecast or in the current analysis of things across the plains states. Watching clearing skies across the Dakotas and Nebraska, which should also work into western Iowa during the early afternoon hours. Warm front currently located along and just east of the Missouri River from South Dakota into western Iowa. This front should slowly move a bit northward, currently inhibited due to cold pool left from cloud cover and showers this morning. Strong instability and good inhibition is still in the forecast for the warm sector through this evening. A shortwave currently over eastern Colorado should move over the corner regions of SD/NE/MN/IA during the evening hours and should provide enough support for the formation of isolated thunderstorms.

Thunderstorms forming along the warm front would appear to be supercellular in nature during the evening hours, with the threat of very large hail, damaging winds, and the potential for a tornado given favorable storm motion. Storms should merge in the early nighttime hours, and begin more of a damaging wind threat across northern Iowa and southern Minnesota. This is confirmed with the latest SPC outlook upgrading the probabilities for damaging winds across this region...

Will watch the warm front evolution, as well as the 700hPa temperatures that will be inhibiting development until the Colorado shortwave makes its' way over during the evening hours.

Severe Weather Threat - August 7

Morning convection continues across southwest Iowa, with additional showers/thunderstorms spread throughout the state and spreading eastward at approximately 30-40 mph. These thunderstorms and showers should continue through the morning hours across much of the state, with cloud cover also remaining through 10 AM across the entire state. Look for a gradual decrease in coverage in both showers and cloud cover through the Noon hour and into the afternoon. Skies should begin to clear from west to east through the Noon hour as well, beginning to leave portions of western Iowa under warm and sunny skies by early afternoon. A warm front currently positioned south of the thunderstorm activity this morning should make its' way northward as the lee cyclone moves out of eastern Colorado and into the plains this afternoon. The warm front should become positioned parallel to I90 across southern Minnesota and likely through South Dakota, with a very warm/moist and unstable air mass to its' south.

Instability values should become quite high (3000-4000 j/kg) given surface temperatures near/above 90 degrees and dew point values well into the 60s and perhaps 70s along/south of the warm front. Strong surface convergence as well as theta-e should be taking place along the warm front, with aid from a subtle disturbance in the mid-levels also arriving during the evening hours across northwest Iowa. The combination of strong instability and continued convergence along the boundary may have the potential to break a cap that is likely to be in place throughout the afternoon south of the warm front. Temperatures at 700hPa are likely to be in the 11-13C range, with temperatures at 850hPa above 20C. Despite the warm temperatures aloft, models continue to indicate surface heating is enough to overcome the cap in areas that have this strong convergence along the warm front.

If the cap is overcome within the warm sector across northwest Iowa or South Dakota, expect rapid intensification of updrafts leading to large hail becoming a likely threat. Given strong shear values, especially for the late evening and early nighttime hours as the low level jet begins to aid the low level flow, a tornadic potential will exist with any development. Expect storms to begin to form into somewhat of a cluster or MCS after 10 PM and continue across the state, with perhaps an additional MCS moving out of the Dakotas and into MN/IA during the nighttime hours. An additional update is likely near the Noon hour, and once again through the afternoon and convective inhibition and the location of boundaries, etc. becomes more defined.

Storm Chasing Status: With a conditional threat, I will likely be sitting in the comfortable confines of home through the afternoon. However, with the threat likely evolving within an hours drive will be watching conditions closely. Current four county target area is Lyon and Osceola counties in northwest Iowa, and Nobles and Rock counties in southwest Minnesota.

A Few Rounds of Storms

Sunday night did bring a few severe weather reports across the state, mainly of marginally severe hail around an inch in diameter and several wind gusts of 60 mph or so. The wind was strong enough to take down a few trees and power poles in a line roughly along Highway 30 from Sioux City towards Fort Dodge. We've held quiet since then, with temperatures still a little below normal for this time of year.

We'll be able to change the temperature aspect and finally feel some good summer heat and humidity for a few days for this weekend. This will also bring us the conditional chance of some thunderstorms during the late afternoon and overnight hours beginning tonight, and likely lasting through the weekend. At this time it is too conditional to really pinpoint any good chances of a round of thunderstorms, but rather good to mention that if thunderstorms do persist or develop into Iowa they are likely to have a chance of some large hail and damaging winds.

Our first chance will be across western Iowa tonight as a potential MCS will swing by the state coming out of the Dakotas. An additional round of storms may also be coming into northern Iowa by the early morning hours as the threat of an additional MCS seems possible. After these rounds of storms have a chance to move through, a good setup will be featured over portions of SD/MN/IA for severe weather. However, the warm air at the surface will also translate into the mid-levels and may keep us capped from thunderstorms. Sunday also appears to have a chance of thunderstorms, with the likelihood of an upgrade of the severe weather risks issued by the SPC in later outlooks.

While dodging the rounds of thunderstorms, enjoy the warm and humid air as temperature soar into the upper 80s and 90s and dew points rise into the upper 60s and even 70s creating the typical miserable summer feel. Additional updates may be given if warranted...

Cool & Calm July

Iowa has been both on the cool and calm side of the weather for the month of July despite a few events that have hit some parts of the state hard, including a few tornadoes and some very damaging hail across northeast Iowa last Friday. A rough and quick look at the mean temperatures over the month of July indicates that it is likely to be the coolest since 1992. For example, Estherville has a mean temperatures thus far of 66.8 degrees, which is second coolest since 1951!

The final day of the month looks to be just at, or just below normal for the state. We'll also get a good chance of some thunderstorms for the end of the month across at least the western half of the state. The severe weather threat appears minimal at the moment, but some small hail and gusty winds is not out of the question for the western third of the state. An update may be necessary if the potential for severe weather tomorrow night does increase...

We'll clear off and be near or just below normal for high temperatures once again through next week; low temperatures will be just below normal. A chance of thunderstorms and showers will work its' way back into the forecast for mid-week, otherwise it appears dry through the first week of August. The long range forecasts do indicate the possibility of a good ridge building into the central US through the first weeks of August which may finally lead to some above normal temperatures!

Severe Weather Update #1 - July 24

Both a Severe Thunderstorm Watch and Tornado Watch have been issued for portions of the state. Currently the bulk of thunderstorm action is confined to the northeast corner of the state where a supercell is beginning to take on tornadic characteristics and has prompted the tornado watch issuance. This storm has moved through areas of northeast Iowa with hail up to 1.50" in diameter and winds of at least 60 mph causing tree damage and at least one injury in Cresco.

While this storm is currently only severe warned, the latest scans have indicated rotation beginning to tighten and this storm may become tornadic within the next hour. With conditions continuing to become favorable for tornadoes, the SPC has issued a tornado watch for portions of eastern Iowa where this storms path appears to be at this time.

Additional development along the cold front across northern Iowa may occur through mid-afternoon, thus the severe thunderstorm watch continuing in effect until 5 PM for portions of the state.

Severe Weather - July 24

A strong cold front and associated upper level features will aid in thunderstorm development this afternoon across a majority of the state. Given current forecasts for shear, instability, and the strong support with the cold front it would appear that all modes of severe weather are likely across the risk area including isolated tornadoes, very large hail, and damaging winds.

Strong warm air advection should occur through the morning hours and into the late afternoon, suppressing any convection from occurring. As the cold front continues to dive southeast in the evening it should be able to overcome any inhibition that is in place ahead of it in the warm sector. Initial storm development between 6-8 PM should be supercellular in nature given strong bulk wind shear, and given strong veering winds near the surface a tornado or two is possible. Given the strong forcing along the cold front, thunderstorms should quickly develop along the entire front near sunset. This will promote more of a broken line mode of severe weather, with large hail and damaging winds becoming the main threat for the nighttime hours.


Additional updates are likely this afternoon when mesoscale discussions and eventual watch(es) area issued.

A Quick Recap

Busy days ongoing for me has created a good lack of updates on my part. Just to review back to July 14, the severe weather threat did materialize, although much weaker than initially thought due to only convection along the front firing during the evening hours. Did manage to punch through a severe warned cell between Wallingford and Ringsted on the way back from a playoff baseball game. This cell didn't really back much punch in regards to wind, and no hail was found. A weakly photogenic shelf cloud was noted, but not captured...

After the cold front passed through the state we were left with some below average temperatures that have continued into tonight. Current temperatures early this morning range from the mid 50s to the upper 40s! High temperatures for Friday should range from the upper 60s to the mid 70s across the state from northeast to southwest; lows overnight will drop into the upper 40s to mid 50s across the state once again. The weekend will stay dry with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s from east to west on Saturday, then from mid 70s to mid 80s by Sunday. Low to mid 50s for Saturday night temperatures, and mid 50s to lower 60s from east to west for lows on Sunday night.

We'll return to chances of thunderstorms and showers for the work week, with the best chances on Monday night in the west; Tuesday and Tuesday night for the central and eastern thirds, and the potential for a lingering shower or storm in the east on Wednesday. High temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s from east to west for the first half of the work week; with lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Look for an update on these chances of thunderstorms come early next week!

Severe Weather Potential - July 14

The potential for a significant severe weather event over portions of the central/northern plains is there for tomorrow, as potent surface features will be supported by strong upper air parameters. Two areas of interest are going to come into play, both of which have some very big question as to its' potential to produce significant severe weather. A lot of the questions may be answered tomorrow morning once the evolution of the MCS(s) from current severe/tornadic convection across SD/NE is known. An update during the overnight hours or during the early morning will hopefully give an idea as to which area of concern is greatest.

The most favorable target will likely be along a reinforced warm front or outflow boundary following tonights' convection that will setup across southeast Nebraska, southwest Iowa and across northern/western Missouri. Strong heating and moisture return will be in place for this area, providing extreme instability and likely strong lift. Upper air features better align with this area of instability and lift, aided by a shortwave that would likely aid in development. As with the case with most late season events with such extreme parameters in place is the capping concerns... Temperatures at 700hPa near the 12C mark will likely cap thing well into the afternoon, however, there is support with the models indicating that this capping inversion will be broken before 00z. A target in this area could come with some significant rewards, or you could end up with nice blue skies as the cap holds.

Another target area will be further north along the cold front which is forecasted to move into western Minnesota and near the SD/NE/IA/MN corners and into eastern Nebraska. Capping will be less of a concern here with a strong mechanism for storm development (cold front) and 700hPa temperatures less than 12C. Development is likely by the evening hours along the cold front throughout western Minnesota and into SD/IA/NE. The problem with the setup here arises with the displacement of instability and shear parameters, with strong instability present along/ahead of the cold front (especially at low levels), but the best shear further ahead of the front. Any development just ahead of the cold front may be able to tap into both instability and shear, thus able to put on a show... This would rely on any outflow boundaries from morning convection...

Additional updates likely within the next 8-12 hours... I will likely favor the secondary target area as it is quite local.

Chase Account - July 9

Several rounds of severe weather swept across portions of northwest Iowa yesterday, from mid-afternoon hail to evening and overnight storms that left hail, winds, and heavy rainfall across parts of the state. I made a trip out to view the storms on two occasions yesterday, once during the mid-afternoon hours between 3:30 and 4:30 PM. This was the initial round of storms that produced some large hail from the SD/IA borders eastward to near Highway 71. Upon arrival to the storms, they were weakening significantly and led to only heavy rains that would obscure your view pretty good. On this trip we would also arrive upon an accident that occurred just west of Ruthven, IA where it appeared a vehicle may have been pulling out of a private lane onto the highway and did not see the cross traffic. A bad scene there as both vehicles were badly damaged, however, have not heard any news about this accident and how either drivers/passengers fared.

The second chase came during the waning daytime hours, from ~8:30 PM to after 10 PM across portions along the Dickinson/Clay county lines and back towards Wallingford in Emmet county. Several occasions of strong lightning strikes, and torrential/blinding rains with the multiple storm cells that we crossed paths with. On the backside of the last cell to be severe warned across these counties we were able to capture several occasions of 3/4" hail and strong east-southeast winds of 40+ mph. Video was captured from the dash cam for the entire trip, however, nothing significant to really note and share... A nice local chase/spot to add on for the year; now we'll wait for some true summer isolated cells to actually have some photogenic quality to the storms!

Severe Weather Potential - July 9

A complicated forecast is in the works for the next 36 hours, and perhaps even longer, for Iowa and adjacent areas. A strong wave will initiate thunderstorms this afternoon across the western Dakotas and areas of Montana/Wyoming. These storms should develop into a large MCS, possible derecho, during the evening and overnight hours traversing the Dakotas and moving into western Minnesota by sunrise on Thursday. This MCS will likely be making a right turn throughout the night as the low level jet veers, making the projected path perhaps into northern Iowa between 6-10 AM tomorrow. While the severe weather threat would seem minimal, gusty winds nearing severe criteria is a definite possibility.

As this MCS clears, a stable layer will be left over and likely inhibit additional development until the later afternoon hours. With a cold front and strong disturbance coordinate to create sufficient lift to break and inhibition that will be present across northern Iowa and southern Minnesota. With wind fields increasing in strength throughout the lower and mid-levels, expect deep layer shear to be sufficient for supercells as the initial storm mode with damaging winds, large hail, and isoalted tornadoes all being possible. However, with time and more forcing along the cold front it would appear that the growth of another MCS is likely, yielding a damaging wind threat across the central portions of the state. More details into the forecast will be clear tomorrow morning when the extent of the morning MCS is known... Expect an additional update late tonight and early tomorrow as to the possibilities of severe weather across portions of Iowa.

Severe Weather Recap - July 7

A cluster of thunderstorms developed in eastern South Dakota during the afternoon hours yesterday, and entered into northwest Iowa during the evening hours. These clusters of storms were at times severe warned with the potential for both damaging winds and large hail, estimated 60 mph winds were reported and hail up to 1.5" in diameter also occurred. The severe weather was intermittent at best, with little in the way of damage reported.

I ventured outside of home for a short while as the leading edge of what was a bow echo entered the state in northern Emmet county. Upon arriving outside of Wallingford I did capture very brief video of a gustnado on this leading edge. I estimate the location of this gustnado near Dolliver, IA given its' distance away from me at that time. An otherwise uneventful night as gusty winds and heavy rains were all that occurred...

I will try to get a vidcap of the gustnado up at a later time... Along with a few panoramic images of the shelf as it entered Emmet county.

Severe Weather Update #1 - July 7

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for portions of South Dakota, Nebraska, Minnesota, and Iowa until 10:00 PM this evening. This watch will cover the four corners of these states, thus including a majority of the counties within the Sioux Falls NWS CWA. Additional thunderstorms have formed outside of this watch area along a warm front/outflow boundary across portions of Iowa. These storms are expected to remain below severe limits, thus no watches or warnings have been issued for this area.

Forecasts and analysis of ongoing convection indicates that the severe weather threat for northwest Iowa will likely not come into play until the evening hours (after 5 PM).

Severe Weather Potential - July 7

A trough of low pressure and possible weak low pressure center should be located over central South Dakota this afternoon. A stationary boundary should extend eastward from this low over parts of eastern South Dakota, southern Minnesota and northern Iowa. This boundary and low pressure center should be the focus for thunderstorm development this afternoon and through the overnight hours, with the potential for severe weather.

While current forecasts indicate that thunderstorms will be more likely to develop in South Dakota, and move into MN/IA/NE during the evening/overnight hours there is potential for development along the frontal boundary during the afternoon and this is supported by a few high-resolution models this morning. Any thunderstorms that do develop this afternoon across the northern plains of SD/NE/IA/MN may be capable of damaging wind gusts and large hail, as well as an associated weak tornado or landspout threat. Storms are likely to congeal into clusters as the evening progresses and move southeastward with time with more of a damaging wind threat through the overnight hours into IA/MN and perhaps northeastern Nebraska.

Additional updates are possible this afternoon as storms develop or initiation becomes more defined...

A Few of Natures' Fireworks Possible

With the fourth of July weekend coming up, it looks like mother nature will try to give us some of her own fireworks as we head into the weekend. A storm system will bring the chances of thunderstorms across the state on Friday, and continue through the fourth over a majority of the state. While the chances are fairly small currently, any storms that do develop are likely to be strong and potentially severe with damaging winds and marginally severe hail. These storms would at least cause some problems with any outdoor plans for Friday evening and Saturday across the state. An additional update before this weekend begins may refine any details on the chances for strong/severe thunderstorm across the state...

The forecast otherwise couldn't be too much better for the state... Thursday's highs ranging from the mid 70s to mid 80s from northeast to southwest; overnight lows in the mid 50s to lower 60s. Fridays' highs in the lower to mid 80s across the state will give way to thunderstorms chances across the western half of the state; overnight lows in the lower to mid 60s across the state indicate the increase in moisture across the state. The fourth of July will bring in more cloudy weather across the state, but highs still within a few degrees of 80 across the state. Slight chances of thunderstorms would appear to exist across the entire state during the afternoon, subsiding in the overnight hours. Saturday night lows near 60 across the state will make for an enjoyable overnight. We'll finish off the holiday weekend with highs in the lower 80s and lows in the low to mid 60s leading us back into the workweek.

Severe Squall Line

A mature squall line that continues to be capable of damaging winds in excess of 60 mph and the potential for quarter sized hail is moving swiftly to the east across South Dakota and northeast Nebraska. Current warnings cover the entire length of this line from DeSmet, SD to Pierce, NE...

Along its' current track the line would likely enter southwest Minnesota and northwest Iowa just after 1 AM this morning. Northwest Iowa is most likely to see any damaging winds from this squall line as it enters the state. Those in northwest Iowa should monitor conditions with their weather radio as damaging winds can often cause trees to fall which can produce damage to homes, especially upper levels.

My current plan will be to grab a few hours rest before getting up and heading out ahead of this squall line if it is still in tact as it nears Dickinson/Clay counties. More than likely I will attempt some lightning photography as it nears...

Severe Weather Potential - June 24

Quick update from the road today as I am returning from a trip to Ames to visit a few friends. Thunderstorms were widespread yesterday as they continued to move in from NE/SD during the early afternoon hours. Although a few tornado warnings were issued, these tornado warnings were for small vorticies that were confined within the larger line of storms as it moved across the state. No reports were confirmed of a tornado in the state yesterday, but wind damage was widespread through nearly the entire state with wind gusts nearing 80 mph in a few of the stronger storms during the afternoon.

Today's severe weather threat would appear to exist during mainly the late evening and overnight hours as storms once again move out of SD/NE and into western Iowa. A few rogue thunderstorms may develop in localized areas of convergence this evening and have the potential for damaging winds, hail and an isolated tornado. Otherwise it is likely that an MCS will form over eastern SD and continue east/southeast into northwestern Iowa during the early overnight hours. This MCS will likely contain damaging winds and perhaps some small hail as it moves across the state.

Welcome Summer...

Apparently summer did not want to show up until it was officially ready, with Sunday being the first day of summer the state sure has heated up since. High temperatures yesterday ranged from the lower to mid 90s across the entire state, with plenty of moisture across a majority of the state to make it feel like temperatures were close to triple digits. Today will be similar, with highs actually getting a few degrees higher than yesterday in most locations. With high continuing in the lower to mid 90s, and even more moisture present today, heat indices will range across the lower 100s. This has prompted a majority of the state to be put under a heat advisory for this afternoons' heat.

Thunderstorms are a possibility across the state tonight and tomorrow, with a chance of a few storms even being near or above severe limits overnight tonight across western and central Iowa. These thunderstorms should be fairly isolated in nature, with marginal hail and damaging winds as the main threats. Temperatures will cool some on Wednesday with the passing of this system, but temperatures should still remain in the 80s across the state. Those temperatures in the 80s should continue through the remainder of the week, with continued high moisture leading to the warm/sticky days and enjoyable nights.

Severe Weather Potential - June 21

More of a summer-like pattern has pushed into the central plains, with a weak ridge trying to work into the plains states. This has left us with southwest flow aloft through the state of Iowa, and with a low pressure system working off of the high plains and into Nebraska this morning will set us up for a round of severe weather this afternoon. This low pressure system should work into the four corners area of NE/SD/IA/MN by mid-afternoon, with a well defined warm front to its' east/southeast and a trough of lower pressure to its' south/southwest. Along and south of the warm front should have clear skies through the afternoon, with strong heating near 90 and dew points surging into the lower 70s across the area. This should provide us with moderate to strong instability across the state, and with little in the way of inhibition it would likely to see storm initiation fairly early in the afternoon in areas that clear and develop this instability.

Given decent southeasterly flow within the warm sector, low level shear should be sufficient to warrant a tornadic risk. Combined with the very low LCL levels thanks to good heating and moisture present, this tornadic risk seems to be fairly significant. Storms that do develop and move east/southeast nearly parallel to the warm front would have favorable conditions to be tornadic. Thus, would expect areas of northern Iowa, and eastern Iowa where the warm front is more southeast oriented to see the greatest risk of severe weather including tornadoes.

It is Father's Day, thus a lot of people likely enjoying the day outside. It will be important to pay attention to the weather this afternoon due to the risk of severe weather, specifically tornadoes. An additional update near Noon is expected, this will be a brief update in regards to any change in potential.

Iowa Upsets Chasers

Once again the state of Iowa has upset the chasing community with its' lack of cooperation over the past two days. Two straight days of moderate risk, and two straight days of utter disappointment for any storm chaser that was in the state. Both setups featured their own caveats, and both featured the opportunities for greatness, but both days have their caveats win out with no tornado reports and perhaps the highlight of a shelf cloud and some impressive winds this afternoon in southeast Iowa.

Thursday's setup featured a warm front which pushed well north of the state, leaving the state under a heavy capping inhibition between 850 hPa and 700 hPa. With no warm front to help trigger thunderstorms, only a weak remnant outflow boundary had an opportunity for greatness. Although it tried with several cumulus fields attempting to bubble up through the capping inversion, none would ever succeed. Thus, tack a point up for capping inversions with 12C temperatures at 700 hPa over Iowa as a bad chase day.

Today's (Friday) setup finally featured a strong trigger for convection as a cold front moved through the state, and an outflow boundary once again was expected to allow low level winds to remain southeasterly and aid in low level shear. The disappointment would come with winds remaining southwesterly ahead of the cold front, and the lack of a capping inversion allowing the whole cold front to be socked in with showers/storms from Noon onward. At least there were thunderstorms, albeit outflow dominant, that would let you chase something! Wind reports were consistent with at least three separate thunderstorms today, with winds ranging from 60-85 mph across eastern Iowa. Still, a day that would have offered tornado potential for the state would be ruined by a cold front with little inhibition and the lack of cooperation of the surface winds.

If anything can be learned from the past two days, trust instincts that a 12-13C temperature at 700hPa and no strong convergence in the lower levels will lead to nothing but struggling cumulus or blue skies. And, when a cold front comes into the state then you need the 12C temperature at 700hPa along with some southeast if not at least south winds to provide low level shear.

Here's to the hope that the more summer-like thunderstorms can provide some punch for the state with at least some great lightning and supercellular structure!!

Severe Weather Threat - June 19

While yesterday turned out to be another cap bust in Iowa that makes all those out-of-state chasers absolutely hate chasing in Iowa, today will definitely not be the same. Must cooler temperatures just above the surface in the lower levels will provide much less of a capping inversion, and with a must stronger wave in the mid-levels combined with significantly more convergence at the lower levels as well with a cold front moving southeastward. All of this will provide the southeast half of the state to see numerous thunderstorms, many of which may be severe with damaging winds and large hail.

Be sure to pay attention to the latest weather information via TV/Radio as thunderstorms near your area. While the risk of tornadoes is forecasted, it would appear that surface winds quickly turning southwesterly will decrease the low level shear dramatically, thus inhibiting the strong low level shear that was expected to aid in tornadic development.

Cap Bust??

With 700hPa temperatures in vicinity of the 12C range, the cap over central Iowa is quite strong... And with the ever decreasing convergence along any portion of the state it looks less and less likely that storms will fire before dark. I've decided to slowly work back westward towards home with an eye on the sky/radar if something does try to develop.

For now it appears that the Iowa cap will once again win over another fantastic parameter day in June...

Did manage to meet up with the TWISTEX crew and spend some time chatting with them, and grabbed a few pictures with the TIV2 as they were with the TWISTEX crew today. It was good to see all of them and hope to see you guys again!!

Chasing Live!!

Currently on Highway 18 just east of Cylinder, IA and will likely continue east towards Algona before sitting and waiting for a bit longer. Parameters look amazing, and once the cap is able to go then we should see very explosive development of supercells capable of significant tornadoes and hail.

Be sure to watch the chase live via the spotter network maps, the latest radar update from my laptop, and live video from my dash on the Iowa Chaser Live Chase Page!!

Significant Severe Weather - June 18

The updated SPC Day 1 outlook will continue the moderate risk of severe weather across much of northern Iowa and southern Minnesota. There is a significant risk of damaging winds, very large hail, and tornadoes across the area today. In fact, the updated outlook has increased the probability of tornadoes over northern Iowa and southern Minnesota. The morning thunderstorms will actually help increase the risk of tornadoes this afternoon/evening as the outflow boundary left in its' wake will interact with the warm front to create substantial low level shear. This would appear to once again be a very dangerous and life threatening situation over areas of the plains states today.

I will be chasing today across northwest Iowa, this blog will have the latest updates as I can provide them. As we near the afternoon initiation you may be able to view live video from my vehicle as well as track my location via the Iowa Chaser LIVE Chase Page.

Next update in regards to afternoon chasing and severe weather is expected in the early afternoon hours.

Morning Severe

The SPC has issued a new severe thunderstorm watch for northern Iowa as a line of thunderstorms with a history of large hail and damaging winds is moving across northwest Iowa currently and is expected to remain severe through the morning hours. This watch will be in effect until 11:00 AM and cover the areas shown below:

Morning Bow Echo

Thunderstorms cleared the state during the overnight hours, but not before providing several reports of hail and damaging winds as well as a tornado report in northeastern Iowa during yesterday evening.

Early this morning there is a bow echo that is entering northwest Iowa with the potential for damaging winds in excess of 60 mph. This storm has had a history of damaging wind gusts as well as marginally severe hail. The bow echo is a line of storms extending from near Beresford, SD southwards to near Pender, NE; and is moving east/northeast at 35 mph. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for portions of northwest Iowa until 9 am for this line of thunderstorms.

This line of storms does appear to travel towards my location, thus will plan for its' arrival between 8:30 and 9:00 AM with the likelihood of a photogenic shelf cloud.

Severe Weather Update #2 - June 17

The weak boundary is responsible for several ongoing tornadic storms over north-central and northeast Iowa as well as southern Minnesota. Currently Chickasaw county has a tornado warned storm that has produced a tornado before within the past hour, and this storm may continue to produce tornadoes as it moves to the southeast. Another, perhaps more dangerous storm, is moving into Mitchell and Howard counties in Iowa. This storm has produced a large and dangerous tornado that is responsible for injuries across Austin, MN and nearby areas. These storms are likely to continue to be tornadic in nature for at least the next hour or two. After which the instability may begin to weaken in those areas and we may see the storms weaken... Persons in those areas should be very aware of the conditions and take shelter if any storms approach.

Additional thunderstorms have fired across northeast Nebraska and into southeast South Dakota. Given environmental conditions ahead of these thunderstorms, they are likely to maintain a severe weather threat into the overnight hours. Areas of west-central and northwest Iowa are likely to see these storms as they have the potential to produce significant severe weather. Additional updates are likely as storms continue to threaten areas of the state.

Severe Weather Update #1 - June 17

Severe and now tornadic thunderstorms are ongoing with the stronger warm front located along the Kansas/Nebraska border. Additional storms are likely as we continue through the afternoon and eventually congeal into more of a cluster or MCS of storms moving into west-central and southwest Iowa.

The other area of concern for severe weather, including tornadoes, will be over northwest/north-central Iowa where a convergent low level boundary associated with a weak low pressure system over South Dakota may trigger thunderstorms this afternoon/evening. Latest analysis indicates this wind shift is becoming very defined with strong instability along and east of the boundary. Effective wind shear values above 40 kts will support supercells when initiation occurs, and likely support tornadic storms through the evening hours.

I plan on chasing any development along this wind shift and weak boundary in northwest Iowa, thus stay tuned for additional updates!

Severe Weather Potential - June 17

The potential is there for significant severe weather across the western half of Iowa this afternoon and into the overnight hours. All modes of severe weather appear possible, including damaging winds, very large hail, and tornadoes. There are two areas of concern for severe weather today, both of which cover western Iowa...

The first and most likely concern will be over much of western Iowa, and likely be during the late evening or overnight hours. This severe weather threat will likely be for damaging winds and large hail, although a risk of tornadoes will exist, a more linear nature of thunderstorms may be expected. These thunderstorms will evolve from central Nebraska this afternoon as they initiate due to a shortwave and frontal system interaction. As the thunderstorms continue to evolve eastward they are likely to congeal into a more linear MCS capable of large hail and damaging winds as they enter into western Iowa.

Another threat for severe weather will exist during the afternoon/evening hours over mainly northwest Iowa, as well as southwest Minnesota. Similar to yesterday afternoon over South Dakota, a weak low pressure system in conjunction with a trough of low pressure and low level convergence may lead to thunderstorm development along a weak wind shift line. With even higher temperatures and dew points this afternoon yielding even higher instability amounts this will come as no surprise to see even stronger supercells off of this setup. These storms will be capable of all modes of severe weather through the evening hours, but similar to yesterday they should begin to weaken after sunset.

Additional updates are likely this afternoon as the severe weather threat evolves, I am watching the potential across northwest Iowa for the tornadic supercells similar to yesterday...

Severe Weather Update #1 - June 16

Although severe weather is not immediately affecting any portion of the state, ongoing and developing thunderstorms appear to be moving towards northwest Iowa and may enter the state in the coming hours. The most immediate danger would appear to effect Plymouth and Sioux counties in Iowa over the next two hours. The NWS in Sioux Falls has extended the tornado watch that was in effect for eastern South Dakota to include those counties that are in the direct path of a strong tornadic supercell that has had a history of producing tornadoes, some of which have appeared to be strong, over southeast South Dakota. Currently this tornadic storm is east of Yankton, SD and is moving southeast at 30 mph. This path would likely effect Vermillion, SD and eventually towards Sioux City, IA by approximately 10:30 PM. While the tornadic threat may not continue through this time, it would appear that at least damaging winds and large hail would be an issue for areas of Plymouth and Sioux counties.

Additional updates are possible if this continues on its' track towards northwest Iowa.

Severe Weather Threat - June 16

While some thunderstorms move across parts of central/eastern Iowa this morning, and some lingering showers/cloud cover continue across western Iowa, we are likely to see clearing skies and an increased chance of thunderstorms once again this afternoon/evening and potentially into the overnight hours. Temperatures not only today, but through the remainder of the week are likely to rebound nicely after morning convection and/or cloud cover. Highs into the 80s and 90s over the state are likely through Thursday...

A weak surface low is positioned across central South Dakota this morning, and is likely to only move slightly as we continue into the afternoon hours. Two troughs of low pressure are likely to extend from this low pressure system and create a moderately unstable warm sector for this afternoon across eastern Nebraska, eastern South Dakota, western Iowa and other adjacent areas. Moderately instability combined with a weakly capped environment should create ample development by the afternoon hours along both troughs in SD/NE and perhaps across Minnesota and extreme northern Iowa. While moderate bulk shear is present across the entire warm sector, directional shear appears to be limited over SD/NE/MN/IA where development is likely. Thus it would appear as if the main threats of severe weather will be for large hail and damaging winds with the strongest and more organized storm clusters this afternoon. Additional update are possible if the severe weather threat warrants...

The severe weather threat will likely continue for the northern plains on Wednesday, and continue through Friday. Both Wednesday and Thursday have warm fronts that will likely be positioned across Iowa or just south of the state warranting the risk for severe weather. Thursday will also have a cold front finally pushing eastward over the plains states with an increased risk of severe weather; a similar threat exists on Friday. Additional updates on these risks as the week continues.

Overnight Thunderstorms

Severe and tornadic thunderstorms continue to move across much of the northern and central plains states. Some of these storms may enter the western portions of Iowa within the next few hours, mainly over southwest Iowa where a Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect. Currently, a line of thunderstorms is moving into southeast Nebraska and will continue to move northeastward into southwest Iowa likely by 10:30 PM capable of large hail and damaging winds. Other storms over central Nebraska and South Dakota will likely congeal into more of an MCS as the low level jet continues to increase and organize storms and produces additional development. These storms are not as likely to be severe, rather with a continued heavy rain threat over parts of the state which saw heavy rains over the past few days.

Thunderstorms will likely linger across the state tomorrow, with additional development of severe/tornadic thunderstorms possible to move into the state during the evening hours. Additional updates on tomorrow's severe weather threat over the southwestern half of the state is likely tomorrow morning.

The forecast will continue to warm up as well as moisten to allow more chances of thunderstorms later in the week, with another round of severe weather being likely on Thursday across much of the state.

Warming Weekend

After below normal temperatures and an end of the week that was both cool and wet we will begin a weekend that will start us on a warming trend! Rainfall totals across the state appeared heaviest across western Iowa where just over an inch fell in areas such as Sioux City and LeMars. Other areas of the state, especially the southeast, did not see nearly as much with only a few hundredths to a few tenths in the heaviest areas. Expect a few lingering showers over central and eastern Iowa tonight, and mainly cloudy skies over those same areas while parts of western Iowa begins to see some clearing skies.

Lows overnight tonight from near 50 in the northwest to near 60 in the southeast. Partly cloudy skies will prevail for Saturday, and with the sunshine we'll see highs in the mid 70s throughout the entire state. Saturday night will remain partly cloudy across the state, with increasing clouds over the west as we near sunrise on Sunday. Low temperatures will range from the lower to mid 50s from northeast to southwest. A weak frontal system will approach the state from the southwest on Sunday, bringing in more chances of showers and an isolated thunderstorm over the southwest half of the state on Sunday and Sunday evening. Highs on Sunday should be fairly consistent across the state near the mid 70s; with overnight lows in the mid to upper 50s from northeast to south. Our frontal system stalls out and begins to become diffuse which will decrease our chances of showers overnight on Sunday.

In the long range, it would appear that mainly zonal flow with embedded shortwaves will prevail over the plains states through the week. This will bring us off and on showers/thunderstorms throughout the week. Some slight ridging is expected to begin towards next weekend, with this expect an increase in temperatures as we near the upper 80s and finally the 90s across parts of Iowa. More details on this true southern warmth in next weeks' forecast updates.

TWISTEX & Other Chasers

Today was forecasted to be another potentially significant day of severe weather with an increased tornado potential across the plains states. Unfortunately for all of the groups out there that are doing research, from my TWISTEX buddies, to VORTEX2, and to all of the other chasers out there, today once again turned to be a big disappointment from a tornadoes standpoint.

The tornado reports today came across eastern Kansas during the early afternoon storms that were likely triggered and aided by the morning MCS. Other reports came across the high plains of Colorado where little risk was expected, and even a stray report in Nebraska that was a very brief and likely a landspout. Sunday was expected to be a strong day for thunderstorms and tornado potential, while the thunderstorm aspect wasn't a disappointment with hail larger than 5 inches in diameter, the tornado reports that may have verified were all brief and weak. This year is the lowest since 2005 as far as tornado reports, and is nearly 200 tornadoes below the last 4-year average. While there are plenty of chasers who have still had a good year, most are still very disappointed in the year thus far.

Thus, I am not too disappointed that I have had to miss this years' activities due to the birth of my first little boy. Here's to a hope that we can continue the mediocre year well into June and into this fall over the northern plains.

While I'm on the context of other chasers including TWISTEX, I would like to give my little shout-out to the group that is chasing as a part of the Discovery Channel Storm Chasers crew. TWISTEX is being displayed as a professional and pure scientific research group, as that is what they are! Tim Samaras, Dr. Bruce Lee, Dr. Cathy Finley, and Tony Laubach among others have had some luck this year; they were able to have a successful mission out in Wyoming last week as well as many others. Be sure to follow their updates as I post them on their website: http://www.twistex.org

June 7 Tornado/Wind Survey for Dallas/Polk Counties

The National Weather Service office out of Des Moines issued their public information statement regarding the tornado reports and damaging wind reports that were received as a severe and tornadic thunderstorm moved across Dallas and Polk counties on Sunday evening. The results of the survey indicated that a brief EF-0 tornado occurred south/southeast of Dallas Center. The tornado length was 1.5 miles long, with an average width of 100 yards; the tornado damage path was concentrated within a path of straight line winds which began near Adel and continued northeast. The reports of a tornado near the town of Grimes was investigated and the NWS determined that this was a results of straight line winds that occurred on the southern periphery of the supercell's mesocyclone. A nice image that the Des Moines NWS has posted to their website is below:




To read more details and the complete public information statement please view the survey link: Adel to Grimes Wind Damage Survey

Another Cool Week

Over the past couple of days I couldn't help but hear people whine about how 'cold' it was across northwest Iowa and adjacent areas that were north of the warm front that sparked off several rounds of thunderstorms. It is always ironic to me how people use the word 'cold' to describe the weather; if it was anytime between October and March then people would be very pleased and say that the past couple of days of weather has been 'warm'. Instead, just because we want to see temperatures in the 70s and 80s or even higher we start complaining that it is 'cold' outside. Thus, this posts title will be in regards to the continued cool weather that is expected for what looks to be the remainder of this week.

Today's temperatures range from the upper 50s to mid 60s across a majority of the state, while extreme southeast Iowa was able to stay in the warm sector for a while and saw highs in the 70s and lower 80s. We'll dry off tonight with low temperatures ranging from the mid 40s to mid 50s from north to south. The showers/thunderstorms will return to western Iowa during the evening hours on Tuesday; with highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s from northwest to southeast. The showers/thunderstorms will overspread much of the state overnight on Tuesday, with low temperatures in the 50s throughout the state. Scattered showers are likely to continue over the state on Wednesday, hindering high temperatures to the mid 60s to lower 70s from north to south.

Although there are a few rogue chances of a shower/thunderstorm, we should stay dry through the rest of the work week. High temperatures for Thursday and Friday should range from the lower to mid 70s. Low temperatures in the lower to upper 50s on Thursday night will increase a few degrees to the mid to upper 50s for Friday night.

Severe Weather Update #2 - June 7

Three storms have formed in vicinity of the warm front across both Iowa and Nebraska, one of which has been tornado warned for over a half-hour now. The tornadic portion of the storm passed just 15 miles south of my previously mentioned virtual target area. This storm has yet to produce a tornado, although a few reports of a roughly organized wall cloud have came into the NWS. This storm continues to move east just north of the Kansas/Nebraska border, and a second storm that is severe warned near Falls City, NE capable of large hail. A third storm along the warm front that is severe warned is much further east in Iowa, near Adair, that is capable of large hail near quarters in size. This storm is moving in more of a northeast fashion.

It would appear that much of Iowa will see isolated thunderstorms this evening and overnight; the best areas for severe weather are likely to be over areas along/south of I-80. Thunderstorms appear to be forming rapidly near the Iowa/Missouri border and will likely be the start of an MCS that will move over southern and eastern Iowa capable of large hail and damaging winds.

No additional updates are likely this evening as the severe weather threat is playing out similar to forecasted.

Severe Weather Update #1- June 7

Just a quick update beings I have had a chance to look over the latest mesoscale analysis from the SPC. The warm front is very well defined across Nebraska and Iowa, with strong frontogenesis also occurring across southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa. There is fairly high temperatures at 700hPa which is likely leading to some pretty good capping across much of eastern Kansas and into adjacent areas of NE/IA/MO. The vorticity maxima associated with the shortwave is now across central NE/KS and this may provide sufficient forcing to begin forming a cumulus field along the warm front. It would appear that all other factors are sufficient for strong supercellular storms this afternoon, wind shear greater than 40 kts, moderate to strong instability, and the good focus for thunderstorms.

We do have cloud cover and a few showers associated with the shortwave, and these may be a hindrance or a help to convective development. My current virtual chase target would be for Tecumseh, Nebraska...

Severe Weather - June 7

Once again a warm front will be draped across the plains states, from northern Kansas through southeast Nebraska and then across parts of southern/central Iowa. Areas along and south of this front are likely to see temperatures near/above 80 degrees this afternoon with surface dew points into the lower 60s. This will provide moderate to strong instability, and combined with ~40 knots of 0-3km wind shear across this sames area of eastern KS/NE and southern IA will provide an environment for supercells. The potential for supercells will be enhanced by an increasing low level jet across the plains states, and any outflow boundaries that may be situated in this warm sector. Thunderstorms should develop along these outflow boundaries in vicinity of the warm front, indicating likely areas of initiation to northeast Kansas, southeast Nebraska and potentially into southwest Iowa. Thunderstorms in the early stages are likely to contain very large hail and the potential for tornadoes; as storms continue into the overnight we could see one or more clusters of storms. These clusters are likely to continue the threat of large hail and especially damaging winds across the remainder of southern/eastern Iowa.

Additional updates are possible this afternoon as storms begin to develop...

Severe Weather - June 6

Overnight convection associated with an MCS has continued to move through the state of Iowa this morning, and another cluster of precipitation is also moving across extreme northeast Nebraska and eastern South Dakota as well. This precipitation and its' evolution was a big question mark as to how it would affect the forecast for today's severe weather as it would influence the location of the warm front. It would appear that a cold pool has setup across parts of southeast South Dakota and adjacent areas of Minnesota and Iowa, however, areas behind this convection are already clearing indicating that there may only be a minimal effect from this mornings' precipitation across much of eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. In fact, elevated instability is already showing up across much of eastern Nebraska where clearing is already occurring.

Current SPC forecasts still indicate that they do not expect the front to have much of a northward surge at all today, leaving the primary focus for severe weather across southeast Nebraska and extreme northern Kansas. Once storms fire over that region this evening, they would then propagate northeastward along the warm front into western Iowa with the threats of damaging winds and large hail. This may be the more likely scenario, however, an eye will likely be kept on this front and its' northward progression throughout the day.

Severe weather will definitely be a possibility for areas south of a Kearney, NE to Sioux City, IA to Fort Dodge, IA line. All modes of severe weather would appear likely south of this line, including the threat of tornadoes in both discrete supercells and even in a more linear segments given strong shear values across the region. Once again however if the warm front is able to surge north across any portion of Nebraska/Iowa the threat of severe weather may move northward... Additional updates this afternoon may address this if it does indeed look to be occurring.

With prior plans in Vermillion, SD until ~7 PM I don't see any chasing occurring today unless the front can surge well north of its' current forecast. Tomorrow may be another chance with those details later tonight...

Severe Weekend Weather!

One of the more impressive setups for severe weather will take place beginning today and continue through the weekend for the northern/central Plains states. A broad western trough has finally moved into position to create southwesterly flow across the high plains today, and will make progress eastward over the next two days to continue this southwest flow into the central US. Today's severe weather threat will be held to the high plains due to meager moisture in place, and the more favorable upper level support is located across the high plains as well. Today's area of interest will include western Nebraska, northeast Colorado, and nearby adjacent areas including eastern Wyoming. The main threats with today's storms in the high plains will be very large hail and tornadoes given a strengthening low-level jet in the evening hours.

Tomorrow (Saturday) the lee cyclone begins to move off of the high plains and further east into Nebraska, with the aid of strong southerly jets just above the surface and an open Gulf of Mexico even at the surface we will see strong moisture return through the day and into the overnight. Moisture return will likely make it to near 60 or just above by Saturday evening, leading to only moderate instability across Nebraska and into western Iowa along/south of a warm front. The warm front location is somewhat in question, although this mornings' models locate this front from near Lincoln, NE to Clear Lake, IA and eastward towards Dubuque, IA. A dryline also situates itself southward from the low in central Nebraska, leading to other favorable areas for severe weather along this dryline through central Kansas. Shear values are favorable throughout this region, and initiation of storms appears likely nearest to the low pressure system in Nebraska and along/north of the warm front in NE/IA. Further south along the dryline could have explosive development if 700hPa temperatures well above 10C do not cap the convection. Storms that do develop and remain somewhat discrete will be supercellular in nature capable of large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. The more likely scenario will be for the storms to develop near the surface low and near the warm front, these storms will be capable of large hail/damaging winds. Given moderate moisture, storms may become surface based and definitely become capable of tornadoes as storms move along the warm front. An additional update on tomorrow may be posted later today if necessary...

Sunday is another day that holds very high potential for severe weather, given deeper and more sufficient moisture return south of the warm front that is once again expected to be draped from northern Nebraska through central/northern Iowa (Norfolk, NE to Sioux City, and near Clear Lake). While the warm front doesn't appear as defined on Sunday, likely due to convection debris/cloud cover from Saturday night, sufficient instability and lift would appear strong enough to erode the capping inversion that is once again present south of the warm front (10-12C 700 hPa temperatures). Once again storms should develop near the low pressure and near the warm front, capable of large hail/damaging winds/tornadoes given increasing shear values throughout the evening. As storms continue to develop near the low and further south along the dryline, it would appear that an MCS will once again develop and push east/northeast through Iowa capable of hail/winds. An update will be posted for Sunday either tonight/early tomorrow or potentially early Sunday.

I'm currently scheduled to photograph a wedding in Vermillion, SD on Saturday afternoon and early evening. Meaning I'm already in position for the potential on Saturday along the warm front and perhaps in position for Sunday in northeast Nebraska given an overnight stay. All of my chase gear will be with me needless to say...

Cooler Weather

Lows over the next few nights will be a ways below normal, while highs struggle and remain just below normal. Overnight lows tonight across the state will range from the lower 40s in the extreme northwest part of the state to the lower 50s across the southeast portions of the state. While partly to mostly cloudy skies remain across the state tomorrow we'll see highs ranging from from the upper 60s to lower 70s and northerly winds from 5-15 mph. Another chilly night is in store for Wednesday night, with skies clearing the lows will drop into the 40s for nearly the entire state.

Winds will begin to turn to the south once again on Thursday, and with partly cloudy skies highs will be back to near-normal from the lower 70s along the Mississippi to highs near 80 along the Missouri River. With meager moisture returning, lows overnight on Thursday will only drop into the lower to mid 50s from east to west across the state. We'll also see some slight chances of showers/thunderstorms move into the state for the overnight and continue through Friday night. Friday's highs will range from the lower 70s to the mid 70s, and overnight lows from near 50 in the north to the mid 50s in the south.

A blast of colder air will return for the weekend, and with that comes showers/thunderstorms across the state. More details on the weekend precipitation chances in the next update!

Weather Update - June 1

Despite a severe thunderstorm watch being issued for portions of southern Iowa, the severe weather threat has never really ramped up due to continue cloud cover and the lack of organized convection. The Storm Prediction Center has chosen to continue the watch over southern Iowa, but it would appear that storms will remain very unorganized through the evening hours.

Thunderstorms are likely to continue over much of southern Iowa, thus despite the lack of severe weather, the likelihood of flooding is fairly high due to the training of storms over the same areas. As the storms continue across the state tonight and into tomorrow, we'll finally clear off on Tuesday afternoon and stay that way until later this week. The next update will contain the forecast for the remainder of the week to see how warm or how cold we can manage to get!

Severe Weather Forecast - June 1

Welcome to June! Our first day will be welcomed with a warm front draped across the state, which will trigger afternoon/evening thunderstorms capable of large hail, damaging winds and even a tornado or two! After the cold front slid through parts of the state last night, the front will continue to slowly progress southward and may even stall out somewhat this afternoon with the warming air mass to its' south. Current forecasts indicate it to position itself near the I-80 corridor by 7 PM tonight.

For those that are along this front, just south/north of the boundary are going to be in a favorable position for thunderstorms this afternoon. Today is one of those warm front days where the instability is all south of the front, but the shear is mainly north. Which means any storms that are able to ride along the boundary to get the best of both sides will be the strongest and most organized of the day, and will be the most likely storms capable of a tornado or two. With flow otherwise parallel to the front, expect storms to eventually congeal into broken lines or clusters capable of large hail and a few wind gusts. Once again expect the thunderstorms to persist into the early nighttime hours with some severe potential.

As the low level jet increases tonight, this will push some elevated instability north of the boundary, likely over much of Iowa. This will also bring the chance for at least elevated storms capable of some large hail given this strong overrunning of moisture across the front in southern/central Iowa. These storms will likely be in clusters or broken lines given the better shear values that are north of the front.

I begin my part-time job this morning, thus am not expecting to chase today along the stalled boundary. Although if any significant changes in the tornado chances occur by early this afternoon I may have to take the quick dive south into the favorable chase area... Another update is possible early this afternoon...

Severe Weather Update #2 - May 31

A few severe thunderstorms, and even one tornado warning, was issued this evening across southeast Nebraska and southeast South Dakota. Warnings are still ongoing across parts of central/eastern Nebraska along the cold front, however, these storms are only capable of large hail at the moment. Other storms along the cold front in southern South Dakota and Minnesota are only capable of heavy rains and maybe some small hail currently. Although the low level jet should begin to ramp up, these storms do not look like they will be well-above severe limits tonight.

Enjoy the rain, maybe some small hail, and otherwise rumbles of thunder overnight...

Another update is likely early tomorrow with a quick discussion about the warm front across the central/southern thirds of the state tomorrow.

Severe Weather Update - May 31

A broken line of thunderstorms has erupted along the cold front across eastern/central South Dakota and into northern Nebraska. With surface winds from the southwest along the cold front, low level shear is pretty weak; combined with high LCL's due to only mid 50s dew points and you are left with fairly high based storms capable of mainly large hail. These storms should continue to develop and move southeast through the evening and into the overnight hours.

While additional thunderstorms may be able to develop during sunset along the warm front in eastern Nebraska, the most likely scenario will be for the storms along the cold front to evolve into a more linear system. These storms may be capable of damaging winds and isolated large hail as they move into northwest Iowa and adjacent areas. Additional updates are possible as storms continue to develop and move into/nearby Iowa...

Severe Weather - May 31

With the lack of an update last night and early this morning, you may have been able to tell that I am not too excited about the severe weather threat today. A warm front will likely push east/northeast through the afternoon into western Iowa by this evening. A cold front will also be located over portions of western Minnesota and across central/eastern Dakotas which will also be a trigger for thunderstorms this afternoon. Today is a combination of favorable shear and weak instability, and then strong instability and weak shear further south along the warm front. Chasers are torn between where to target, where storms are likely but not the greatest tornado chance; or where storms are not so likely but if something were to occur it would likely be the show of the day.

Thunderstorms should develop in the eastern half of South Dakota this afternoon, with the chance of a tornado or two as well as large hail and damaging winds. Forecasts appear to support the development of an MCS, which would likely be capable of damaging winds as it moves into southern Minnesota and northern Iowa tonight. Additional updates as storms form and congeal is likely...

Severe Weather Potential - May 31

It would appear that surface features and upper air parameters will come into play for tomorrow and allow one of the better risks of severe weather across the plains in nearly two weeks! While surface moisture will still be fairly meager across the northern plains with surface dew points only in the 50s, upper air dynamics will be fairly strong and hopefully be able to overcome the lack of moisture. A shortwave will likely move across the new, more westerly, flow at 500hPa and combine with favorable low level flow to give sufficient shear values across much of western Minnesota and adjacent areas of extreme eastern Dakotas.

With sufficient shear values and modest instability present given meager dew point values for the last day of May we should see the initial development of supercells along the cold front and potentially in the warm sector over eastern SD and western MN. While initially the storms may be favorable for large hail and a tornado or two, it appears that with a strengthening low level jet during the evening and into the overnight that the development of an MCS is likely. This MCS would likely move southeast through southern Minnesota and potentially into extreme northern Iowa with the greatest threat being damaging winds. Expect additional updates on the severe weather threat later this evening and early tomorrow... While I currently do not have any chase plans, if significant severe weather does appear to be likely I may have a chase update as well.

Severe Weather Threat - May 29 (Update)

The latest SPC outlook for severe thunderstorms has greatly limited the potential for severe weather across the state this evening and overnight. This is likely due to the lack of convergence along the quasi-stationary front that is now over northern Missouri. With this front located that far south, and the lack of convergence along and especially north of the front it looks as if the likelihood of strong/severe storms anywhere in Iowa is going to be limited to extreme southern Iowa if any areas at all. A few scattered thunderstorms are still possible across portions of Iowa this evening/tonight, however, these should not be severe in nature.

Areas that may see severe weather this afternoon would be areas of the eastern Dakotas and extreme western Minnesota; as well as northern Missouri into Illinois along the stationary boundary. Marginally severe hail, and damaging wind gusts will be the main threats with the evening/overnight storms.

With today's severe weather threat becoming minimal if not obsolete, we'll look towards Sunday as the first day that Iowa can see severe weather since oh so long ago...

Severe Weather Threat - May 29

A weak cold front is positioned across northern Iowa this morning, and should slowly push southward through the morning hours to be positioned near/along the I-80 corridor by this afternoon. Areas along and south of this front will be in position to see strong/severe thunderstorms this afternoon and overnight. While some storm development along the front is possible during the evening hours, storms that develop across central NE/SD are likely to congeal into some form of MCS or cluster of storms. These clusters of storms should follow along/south of the cold front and be capable of damaging winds and/or large hail through the overnight hours across southern Iowa and northern Missouri.

Additional updates are possible this afternoon if development does occur this afternoon across Iowa, otherwise expect an update during the evening hours on the thunderstorm development across Nebraska/Dakotas and how those storms may evolve across Iowa overnight.

Otherwise expect partly cloudy to clear skies across the state, with temperatures in the mid 70s to upper 80s across the state. Additional strong/severe thunderstorms will once again be in the forecast for Sunday afternoon/evening...

Feels like May!

After yesterday's high temperatures across the state in the 50s and 60s, along with cloudy and rainy skies, today is much of a relief for those wishing it would actually feel like May. Morning lows were on the chilly side in the mid 40s in the northwest, to the mid 50s across much of the southern tiers of the state. With clear skies overhead today, and only light northerly winds the temperatures will soar into the lower 80s across the western portions of the state and near 70 along the Mississippi River. Temperatures will only get warmer as we continue into the weekend, and the return of southerly flow will allow increased moisture as well. We'll see only partly cloudy skies through the rest of the week, leading to a wonderful start of the weekend.

Low temperatures tonight in the lower to mid 50s across the state, setting us up for highs on Friday from the mid 70s across the northeast quarter to the mid 80s across the southwest. Friday night lows from the lower 50s to upper 50s from north to south are expected as light southerly winds begin to pull in moisture from the south. Highs for the start of the weekend on Saturday will range from the upper 70s to upper 80s from east to west across the state. Lows overnight from the lower 50s to lower 60s from northeast to southwest... Previous forecasts had indicated the potential for thunderstorms on Saturday evening across parts of southern Iowa, however, current model trends continue to push the forecasted low pressure system and associated fronts further south into Missouri. If this model trend holds true then only a slight chance of a thunderstorm or two would see possible across southern Iowa.

Sunday should hold a different story, with a cold front beginning to work down from the northwest and warm/moist temperatures finally in place ahead of the front would lead to strong and potentially severe thunderstorm development during the afternoon/evening hours. Sunday's highs from near 80 to near 90 appears likely from east to west, with dew points approaching 60 across much of the state.

Thunderstorms would be likely along the cold front as it sweeps into northwest Iowa by the evening hours, and continued development would be likely across the state as the front continues to move southeast through the overnight hours. Moderate instability would appear to be present given warm temperatures and modest dew point values, however dew points would still appear to be too low to support strong surface-based development. For this reason it would appear that damaging winds be the main threat with storms along the cold front, with large hail being a secondary threat with any of the stronger storms. More updates on the potential for severe weather for this weekend and next week in later updates!

Return of Severe Weather?!?

A small area of 'See Text' as issued by the Storm Prediction Center covers extreme southeast Iowa today for the risk of an isolated brief tornado. This is in regards to a weak warm core low that has spun across Missouri the past two days, and is continuing to move northward near the Iowa/Missouri border by late this afternoon. The previous two days with this low have brought tornado warnings and even a couple of reports of tornadoes in extreme southeast Missouri on Sunday. Instability and shear are slightly weaker, thus we don't expect anything other than a storm or two that may be able to exhibit rotation across extreme southeast Iowa and adjacent areas. Other areas across the state should see isolated thunderstorms or showers through much of the day as they move northwest with the weak surface low. Temperatures will struggle with the cloudy and rainy conditions, only reaching the the lower 60s to lower 70s from northwest to southeast.

Lingering showers possible across western and central regions tonight, likely over the eastern third of the state. And then isolated showers across the state on Wednesday, and possibly into Wednesday night for the eastern sections of the state. We then look towards clear skies for the remainder of the week, with the only additional chance of thunderstorms coming into the forecast for western Iowa on Saturday. More details on these thunderstorm chances and the return of severe weather being possible for the plains states in later updates...

Wednesday highs in the 60s across the state; Thursday in the mid 70s to lower 80s from east to west; and Friday highs from the mid 70s to mid 80s from east to west as well. Tonight's lows in the from near 50 in the northwest to near 60 in the southeast; overnight lows on Wednesday night from the upper 40s to upper 50s from northwest to southeast. Lows on both Thursday and Friday night will be into the mid to upper 50s across the entire state, as moisture begins to be pushed into the state under stronger southerly winds.

Severe Weather Drought

Today marked the eighth straight day in which the Storm Prediction Center had not issued a Severe Thunderstorm or Tornado watch over any part of the United States. This is essentially a May record, with eight days of minimal organized severe weather and even one day (May 21) in which not even a single severe weather report was received. For those that are interested in such major projects like VORTEX, this lack of significant severe weather is definitely putting a damper on any hype. At least many are hopeful for a strong start to June, that will hopefully continue through the rest of the month and have mother nature finally give us a good show in the beautiful northern plains states.

Several local chasers/spotters have been using the high plains as chase territory with times like these, minimal moisture is still sufficient at the higher elevations, and low level winds with an easterly component play into good up-slope flow to trigger the convection. A weak/shallow trough is currently over the northern plains, and will create some potential for severe weather across eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota on Memorial Day. However, even with sufficient wind shear over this area, the lack of moisture will likely create high based storms more likely of large hail and some strong wind gusts.

Once this small trough passes through, we'll once again see a ridge in the western half of the CONUS build. Continuing the lack of organized severe weather across the plains states... Forecast models are now beginning to hint at this ridge breaking down towards the last day or two of May and then continuing to support the threat of organized severe weather into the month of June. Once these threats really begin to crank up and enter the forecast, I'll hopefully be able to begin some organized severe weather forecasts for Iowa and adjacent areas.

Wet Weekend

Memorial Weekend has been fairly wet and cool across northwest Iowa, as a cold front is draped across the state leading to showers/thunderstorms along and north of the boundary. Today's highs over northwest Iowa where rain and cloud cover dominated were only in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Other parts of the state saw plenty of sun and temperatures once again soared into the upper 70s to mid 80s.

These showers and thunderstorms will continue over northwest Iowa tonight, and a few sprinkles are also possible over the rest of western and northern Iowa. Lows from the mid 50s to mid 60s from northwest to southeast are expected. As the cold front works through the rest of the state, we'll see isolated showers over all but the southeast corner of the state on Saturday. High temperatures from the upper 60s in the north, to the lower 80s in the south are forecasted. A few isolated showers are going to be held in the forecast over the western third of the state through the remainder of the weekend; with high temperatures in the 70s through the state on Sunday. Lows on Saturday and Sunday will be in the 50s for the most part, a few 60s also will be seen.

We'll see showers and thunderstorms work back into the forecast for Memorial Day, and through Tuesday. Showers over the southern half of the state during the day on Monday, over the entire state for Monday night and Tuesday, and then over the eastern third on Tuesday night. A few stronger thunderstorms may be possible if moisture can be sufficient, more details on that may be available later this weekend. Look for high temperatures in the mid to upper 70s on Memorial Day for the state; low temperatures in the mid 50s to lower 60s overnight on Monday...

Summer Arrives!!

After a weekend with near record lows, we now enter a couple of days with high temperatures that will be well above normal for late May. We saw our first hint of that today with temperatures across the state ranging from near 90 along the Missouri River, to only the upper 60s along the eastern portions of the state. We'll see the upper level ridge move further east over the next couple of days, allowing the entire state to see the well above normal temperatures. This will come with some negatives, as southerly winds will be gusty from 20-40 mph on both Tuesday and Wednesday. As for those highs, Tuesday will range from near 90 to near 80 from west to east; Wednesday from the lower 90s to lower 80s from west to east. Lows on Tuesday from the mid 60s to upper 50s from west to east.

A cold front will begin to drape into the state on Wednesday night, leading to some showers and isolated thunderstorms across northwest Iowa. This will also lead to some lower temperatures, with Wednesday night lows from the lower 50s to upper 50s from northwest to southeast. As the cold front slowly moves into the state it will begin to diffuse, and linger across the state for a few days. This will lead to sporadic chances of showers across portions of the state through the end of the week and into the weekend. High temperatures only in the upper 60s to upper 70s are expected; with lows in the upper 40s to upper 50s.

We'll see how the Memorial Weekend forecast plays out, but it looks to be around normal for temperatures; and we will be hopeful that we can clear out the skies for Sunday and Monday after a likely cloudy Saturday start.

In the even longer range, much of the talk between storm chasers is the lack of significant severe weather that appears to be forecasted for quite some time. Some chasers have even been canceling their latter half of May vacations that they were hopeful to chase on. We'll see if summer decides to show up early and end a lot of the significant severe weather chances over the central/southern plains.

Freezing in May!?!

Unfortunately that statement above is likely going to come true tonight, as several National Weather Service offices have already issued Frost Advisories for parts of the state. Overnight lows last night ranged from the mid 30s across northwest Iowa to the mid 40s across southeast Iowa. Temperatures were able to stay slightly warmer due to the windy conditions and some scattered cloud cover. With clear skies and calmer winds today, temperatures will be able to warm nicely into the upper 50s to mid 60s across the state. While these temperatures are 10-15 degrees below average, the sun will at least provide some warmth for the state.

Under clear skies tonight, and unfortunately calming winds, the lows tonight will be able to drop into the 30s across the state. With much of the northern two-thirds of the state seeing temperatures at/below or near freezing. Record lows for tonight range from the upper 20s to mid 30s across the state, thus we should remain just above those record levels. Thankfully, this cold air won't stay too long as Sunday will warm up nicely into the mid 60s to lower 70s from northeast to southwest. The southerly winds will continue into next week and provide us with near average and even above average temperatures. A quick look at the highs/lows for early next week below:

Sunday Night - Low 50s to low 40s from west to east.
Monday - Mid 80s to lower 70s from west to east; southerly winds 15-25 mph.
Monday Night - Mid 50s to lower 50s from west to east.
Tuesday - Lower 80s to upper 60s from southwest to northeast; chance of thunderstorms.
Tuesday Night - Upper 40s to upper 50s from northeast to southwest; chance of thunderstorms.

May 15 Thunderstorms

The combination of a warm front lifting northward and a cold front sliding southeast will create the chance for thunderstorms across much of the state of Iowa from this afternoon through the overnight. A cold front is currently located over central SD/ND this morning, with a warm front draped across portions of northeast Kansas and northern Missouri. The warm front is currently being held fairly stationary by continued thunderstorm development across extreme northern Missouri and northeast Kansas; these storms should move northeast through the early afternoon with the chance of some isolated large hail reports. The warm front should slowly move northward, and may approach southern Iowa by this evening. Areas that are along and south of this warm front should see sufficient instability to promote severe thunderstorms, and given strong shear the storms may support tornadic development this afternoon/evening along/south of the front.

In addition to the warm front thunderstorms, western Iowa should see additional thunderstorm/shower development along the cold front that will move into the state this evening. Given such cold air aloft, some instability is expected despite meager surface moisture and temperatures. Given this instability, some isolated severe storms are possible with the cold front during the afternoon/evening across western Iowa and Minnesota.

Overall, it would appear that the state should miss the majority of severe weather, with only extreme southern Iowa being currently under a slight risk for the remainder of afternoon/evening for the thunderstorms north of the warm front. Areas of northern Missouri and eastern Kansas should be more favorable, with all modes of severe weather possible. Parts of southern Iowa may also deal with flooding given the heavy rains during the previous days, and the training of storms today north of the warm front.

Expect cooler conditions to prevail tonight and tomorrow, and near record lows being possible for Saturday night before we begin our warm-up for next week. Initial forecasts through mid-week next week indicate highs in the 70s and 80s across the state.

Brayden James Prentice

The next-generation storm chaser was born early this morning, May 12, at 1:56 AM.

Brayden James Prentice was 20" and weighed 7 lbs 5 oz!

Chilly Start

After the cold front and associated thunderstorms moved through parts of the state last night, temperatures were finally able to drop well below average across much of the state. Many woke up this morning to temperatures in the mid 30s in northwest Iowa, to the mid 40s across the south and east. The state won't warm up too much even today as cooler northwest flow continues over the state. Expect highs in lower to mid 60s across much of the state today, with low temperatures tonight falling back down into the upper 30s to mid 40s from north to south.

A slight warm up tomorrow, and continued warming trend through the week as thunderstorm chances are introduced beginning Tuesday night. More details on the thunderstorm threat and the chances of severe weather in later updates!

May 8 Severe Weather Update #2

The severe weather threat across the state is coming to an end, as the current line of severe warned storms is just entering Illinois. Other showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue during the overnight for much of the state as precipitation wraps around the low pressure system. Thus far it appears that the lack of instability over the state hindered the threat of severe weather...

The first reports came in just after 5 PM with damaging wind reports in Marion and Poweshiek counties, both of which in the 60-65 mph range. Additional reports at ~6:30 PM from Sigourney, IA where a semi-trailer was blown off the road. And the latest report near Muscatine, IA where ~65 mph winds have occurred with the storms now entering Illinois. One other rogue report came in from an Iowa DNR officer to the east of Spencer, IA where a brief tornado spin-up was reported; likely more of a landspot that was able to pick up some dirt and/or field debris.

This should end our chances of thunderstorms and severe weather until next week as a system on Tuesday may bring a chance of significant severe weather across the Plains.

May 8 Severe Weather Update #1

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for much of Iowa that will be in effect until 8 PM. For more details please read the watch discussion via the SPC page:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0270.html


This watch includes areas east of the low pressure system and cold front, and areas south of the now stationary front. The main threat with any storms that do develop will be the threat for large hail.

May 8 Severe Weather Threat

Once again a weak low pressure system is centered just southeast of Sioux City, with a warm front extending eastward parallel to Highways 20 and 30. This warm front and low pressure system already has a few clusters of isolated thunderstorms just north of the boundary and near the center of low pressure. These storms should continue to evolve and potentially become better defined through the afternoon hours. Additional development is expected through the afternoon to the south of the warm front in the warm sector where temperatures and into the 70s and dew points in the 50s. Areas of surface based instability have developed and should support surface based supercells within the next few hours. Supercells do appear to be the best threat for areas along and south of the warm front; current meso-analysis indicates that an enhanced area of shear and instability exists for areas along and just north of I-80 in western Iowa.

Storms currently developing near the surface low along the Missouri River should continue to move eastward into the area of enhanced shear/instability. If these storms are able to stay discrete over the next few hours, severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and an isolated tornado or two may also be possible.

Although I will not be chasing today, my virtual target area would be along I-80 in western Iowa; likely near Guthrie Center. Additional updates during the afternoon are likely...