August 9 Severe Weather Update #1

A morning supercell is moving through portions of central Iowa, currently just west of Fort Dodge capable of producing 1" to 3" diameter hail and damaging winds in excess of 60 mph. This storm has been severe for quite some time this morning, beginning near the Iowa/Nebraska border and moving east/northeast approximately 40 mph.

This storm has a history of producing 1" to 2" diameter hail and damaging winds, creating some blowing hail that has blown out windows of a home near Yetter, Iowa. The strongest part of this storm is expected to effect downtown Fort Dodge and may produce significant hail capable of producing damaging to vehicles, homes, and especially people.

Latest report from Callender indicates at least 60 mph winds, and close to 1" diameter hail that has caused roof damage and tree damage in town.

Severe Weather Update #1 - July 24

Both a Severe Thunderstorm Watch and Tornado Watch have been issued for portions of the state. Currently the bulk of thunderstorm action is confined to the northeast corner of the state where a supercell is beginning to take on tornadic characteristics and has prompted the tornado watch issuance. This storm has moved through areas of northeast Iowa with hail up to 1.50" in diameter and winds of at least 60 mph causing tree damage and at least one injury in Cresco.

While this storm is currently only severe warned, the latest scans have indicated rotation beginning to tighten and this storm may become tornadic within the next hour. With conditions continuing to become favorable for tornadoes, the SPC has issued a tornado watch for portions of eastern Iowa where this storms path appears to be at this time.

Additional development along the cold front across northern Iowa may occur through mid-afternoon, thus the severe thunderstorm watch continuing in effect until 5 PM for portions of the state.

Severe Weather Update #1 - July 7

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for portions of South Dakota, Nebraska, Minnesota, and Iowa until 10:00 PM this evening. This watch will cover the four corners of these states, thus including a majority of the counties within the Sioux Falls NWS CWA. Additional thunderstorms have formed outside of this watch area along a warm front/outflow boundary across portions of Iowa. These storms are expected to remain below severe limits, thus no watches or warnings have been issued for this area.

Forecasts and analysis of ongoing convection indicates that the severe weather threat for northwest Iowa will likely not come into play until the evening hours (after 5 PM).

Severe Squall Line

A mature squall line that continues to be capable of damaging winds in excess of 60 mph and the potential for quarter sized hail is moving swiftly to the east across South Dakota and northeast Nebraska. Current warnings cover the entire length of this line from DeSmet, SD to Pierce, NE...

Along its' current track the line would likely enter southwest Minnesota and northwest Iowa just after 1 AM this morning. Northwest Iowa is most likely to see any damaging winds from this squall line as it enters the state. Those in northwest Iowa should monitor conditions with their weather radio as damaging winds can often cause trees to fall which can produce damage to homes, especially upper levels.

My current plan will be to grab a few hours rest before getting up and heading out ahead of this squall line if it is still in tact as it nears Dickinson/Clay counties. More than likely I will attempt some lightning photography as it nears...

Morning Severe

The SPC has issued a new severe thunderstorm watch for northern Iowa as a line of thunderstorms with a history of large hail and damaging winds is moving across northwest Iowa currently and is expected to remain severe through the morning hours. This watch will be in effect until 11:00 AM and cover the areas shown below:

Morning Bow Echo

Thunderstorms cleared the state during the overnight hours, but not before providing several reports of hail and damaging winds as well as a tornado report in northeastern Iowa during yesterday evening.

Early this morning there is a bow echo that is entering northwest Iowa with the potential for damaging winds in excess of 60 mph. This storm has had a history of damaging wind gusts as well as marginally severe hail. The bow echo is a line of storms extending from near Beresford, SD southwards to near Pender, NE; and is moving east/northeast at 35 mph. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for portions of northwest Iowa until 9 am for this line of thunderstorms.

This line of storms does appear to travel towards my location, thus will plan for its' arrival between 8:30 and 9:00 AM with the likelihood of a photogenic shelf cloud.

Severe Weather Update #2 - June 17

The weak boundary is responsible for several ongoing tornadic storms over north-central and northeast Iowa as well as southern Minnesota. Currently Chickasaw county has a tornado warned storm that has produced a tornado before within the past hour, and this storm may continue to produce tornadoes as it moves to the southeast. Another, perhaps more dangerous storm, is moving into Mitchell and Howard counties in Iowa. This storm has produced a large and dangerous tornado that is responsible for injuries across Austin, MN and nearby areas. These storms are likely to continue to be tornadic in nature for at least the next hour or two. After which the instability may begin to weaken in those areas and we may see the storms weaken... Persons in those areas should be very aware of the conditions and take shelter if any storms approach.

Additional thunderstorms have fired across northeast Nebraska and into southeast South Dakota. Given environmental conditions ahead of these thunderstorms, they are likely to maintain a severe weather threat into the overnight hours. Areas of west-central and northwest Iowa are likely to see these storms as they have the potential to produce significant severe weather. Additional updates are likely as storms continue to threaten areas of the state.

Severe Weather Update #1 - June 17

Severe and now tornadic thunderstorms are ongoing with the stronger warm front located along the Kansas/Nebraska border. Additional storms are likely as we continue through the afternoon and eventually congeal into more of a cluster or MCS of storms moving into west-central and southwest Iowa.

The other area of concern for severe weather, including tornadoes, will be over northwest/north-central Iowa where a convergent low level boundary associated with a weak low pressure system over South Dakota may trigger thunderstorms this afternoon/evening. Latest analysis indicates this wind shift is becoming very defined with strong instability along and east of the boundary. Effective wind shear values above 40 kts will support supercells when initiation occurs, and likely support tornadic storms through the evening hours.

I plan on chasing any development along this wind shift and weak boundary in northwest Iowa, thus stay tuned for additional updates!

Severe Weather Update #1 - June 16

Although severe weather is not immediately affecting any portion of the state, ongoing and developing thunderstorms appear to be moving towards northwest Iowa and may enter the state in the coming hours. The most immediate danger would appear to effect Plymouth and Sioux counties in Iowa over the next two hours. The NWS in Sioux Falls has extended the tornado watch that was in effect for eastern South Dakota to include those counties that are in the direct path of a strong tornadic supercell that has had a history of producing tornadoes, some of which have appeared to be strong, over southeast South Dakota. Currently this tornadic storm is east of Yankton, SD and is moving southeast at 30 mph. This path would likely effect Vermillion, SD and eventually towards Sioux City, IA by approximately 10:30 PM. While the tornadic threat may not continue through this time, it would appear that at least damaging winds and large hail would be an issue for areas of Plymouth and Sioux counties.

Additional updates are possible if this continues on its' track towards northwest Iowa.

Severe Weather Update #2 - June 7

Three storms have formed in vicinity of the warm front across both Iowa and Nebraska, one of which has been tornado warned for over a half-hour now. The tornadic portion of the storm passed just 15 miles south of my previously mentioned virtual target area. This storm has yet to produce a tornado, although a few reports of a roughly organized wall cloud have came into the NWS. This storm continues to move east just north of the Kansas/Nebraska border, and a second storm that is severe warned near Falls City, NE capable of large hail. A third storm along the warm front that is severe warned is much further east in Iowa, near Adair, that is capable of large hail near quarters in size. This storm is moving in more of a northeast fashion.

It would appear that much of Iowa will see isolated thunderstorms this evening and overnight; the best areas for severe weather are likely to be over areas along/south of I-80. Thunderstorms appear to be forming rapidly near the Iowa/Missouri border and will likely be the start of an MCS that will move over southern and eastern Iowa capable of large hail and damaging winds.

No additional updates are likely this evening as the severe weather threat is playing out similar to forecasted.

Severe Weather Update #1- June 7

Just a quick update beings I have had a chance to look over the latest mesoscale analysis from the SPC. The warm front is very well defined across Nebraska and Iowa, with strong frontogenesis also occurring across southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa. There is fairly high temperatures at 700hPa which is likely leading to some pretty good capping across much of eastern Kansas and into adjacent areas of NE/IA/MO. The vorticity maxima associated with the shortwave is now across central NE/KS and this may provide sufficient forcing to begin forming a cumulus field along the warm front. It would appear that all other factors are sufficient for strong supercellular storms this afternoon, wind shear greater than 40 kts, moderate to strong instability, and the good focus for thunderstorms.

We do have cloud cover and a few showers associated with the shortwave, and these may be a hindrance or a help to convective development. My current virtual chase target would be for Tecumseh, Nebraska...

Weather Update - June 1

Despite a severe thunderstorm watch being issued for portions of southern Iowa, the severe weather threat has never really ramped up due to continue cloud cover and the lack of organized convection. The Storm Prediction Center has chosen to continue the watch over southern Iowa, but it would appear that storms will remain very unorganized through the evening hours.

Thunderstorms are likely to continue over much of southern Iowa, thus despite the lack of severe weather, the likelihood of flooding is fairly high due to the training of storms over the same areas. As the storms continue across the state tonight and into tomorrow, we'll finally clear off on Tuesday afternoon and stay that way until later this week. The next update will contain the forecast for the remainder of the week to see how warm or how cold we can manage to get!

Severe Weather Update #2 - May 31

A few severe thunderstorms, and even one tornado warning, was issued this evening across southeast Nebraska and southeast South Dakota. Warnings are still ongoing across parts of central/eastern Nebraska along the cold front, however, these storms are only capable of large hail at the moment. Other storms along the cold front in southern South Dakota and Minnesota are only capable of heavy rains and maybe some small hail currently. Although the low level jet should begin to ramp up, these storms do not look like they will be well-above severe limits tonight.

Enjoy the rain, maybe some small hail, and otherwise rumbles of thunder overnight...

Another update is likely early tomorrow with a quick discussion about the warm front across the central/southern thirds of the state tomorrow.

May 8 Severe Weather Update #2

The severe weather threat across the state is coming to an end, as the current line of severe warned storms is just entering Illinois. Other showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue during the overnight for much of the state as precipitation wraps around the low pressure system. Thus far it appears that the lack of instability over the state hindered the threat of severe weather...

The first reports came in just after 5 PM with damaging wind reports in Marion and Poweshiek counties, both of which in the 60-65 mph range. Additional reports at ~6:30 PM from Sigourney, IA where a semi-trailer was blown off the road. And the latest report near Muscatine, IA where ~65 mph winds have occurred with the storms now entering Illinois. One other rogue report came in from an Iowa DNR officer to the east of Spencer, IA where a brief tornado spin-up was reported; likely more of a landspot that was able to pick up some dirt and/or field debris.

This should end our chances of thunderstorms and severe weather until next week as a system on Tuesday may bring a chance of significant severe weather across the Plains.

May 8 Severe Weather Update #1

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for much of Iowa that will be in effect until 8 PM. For more details please read the watch discussion via the SPC page:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0270.html


This watch includes areas east of the low pressure system and cold front, and areas south of the now stationary front. The main threat with any storms that do develop will be the threat for large hail.

Mar. 23 Severe Weather Update #5

The line of thunderstorms has begun to move across the state, with little in the way of severe weather being likely for the remainder of the night. Currently this line of thunderstorms is moving to the east/northeast through much of central Iowa; and should be through much of central Iowa by 1 AM. Eastern Iowa should see some thunderstorms, otherwise heavy rain-showers with the potential for some heavy rains where thunderstorms begin to train over the same path.

This will be the last severe weather update for the evening as the severe weather threat appears to be over.

Mar. 23 Severe Weather Update #4

Thunderstorms continue to roll through parts of central Iowa, with damaging winds being the main threat through the early nighttime hours. Currently, a line of severe thunderstorms is located in Dallas and Marion counties and is moving northeast. This line of thunderstorms may effect the Des Moines metro area within the next hour. Otherwise mainly general thunderstorms with strong wind gusts should move through central Iowa through Midnight tonight...

This thunderstorm has produced significant damage, just after 9:00 PM, a roof was blown off a restaurant in Adair; and a Casey's canopy has also been reported to be destroyed.

Another severe thunderstorm earlier in northwest Iowa created a significant damaging wind report from the Spencer ASOS. The report was received at 8:42 PM with a wind gust of 70 knots (81 mph)! No other reports were received from this storm as it moved north through the Iowa Great Lakes and into Jackson county Minnesota.

Another note from previous severe weather, law enforcement has confirmed that at least a brief tornado touched down approximately 3 miles south-southwest of Cumberland, IA where anhydrous-ammonia tanks were leaking.

Mar. 23 Severe Weather Update #3

Many of the thunderstorms moving across the state have weakened well below severe limits, however, one storm in southwest Iowa remains tornadic. Portions of Adams and Cass counties are under a tornado warning until 8:30 PM as a storm has showed signs of producing a tornado for the past half-hour. This storm is moving north/northeast at 55 mph and may continue to pose a threat for the next hour. The only reports received thus far are of funnel clouds that were occurring at approximately 8:00 PM. Otherwise several large hail reports (1" to 1.5") have been reported previously.

The IowaChaser radar has been zoomed in to focus on this storm as it remains the main threat for portions of Iowa this evening.

Mar. 23 Severe Weather Update #2

Severe and tornadic weather has moved into the state of Iowa, with severe thunderstorm warnings currently issued for Plymouth and Woodbury counties for the threat of penny sized hail and damaging winds; a tornado warning has been issued for Harrison county as a storm with a history of producing tornadoes has moved into the county.

AT 606 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR MODALE...OR 24 MILES NORTH OF OMAHA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

At this time no damage reports have came in that are associated with any of the tornadoes that have occurred today. Additional storms should continue to move northeast into the state this evening, and expand in coverage as well as decrease in strength through the night. Additional updates on the expansion of severe weather into the state are likely tonight...

Mar. 23 Severe Weather Update #1

A Tornado Watch has been issued for portions of western Iowa, this watch will be in effect until 10:00 PM tonight for those included. For more details please see SPC Watch #55. A complex of severe and now tornadic thunderstorms has increased in coverage across eastern and northern Nebraska. These storms will continue to move north/northeast and progress eastward with the movement of a dryline/cold front that is associated with the strong low pressure system over the NE/SD borders.

These storms are likely to remain severe/tornadic through the evening and into the early nighttime hours given favorable shear values and sufficient instability. The line should move into Iowa after 6 PM, where the risk of hail and damaging winds, along with the potential for a tornado should still exist. Additional updates are likely this evening...