Cap Bust??

With 700hPa temperatures in vicinity of the 12C range, the cap over central Iowa is quite strong... And with the ever decreasing convergence along any portion of the state it looks less and less likely that storms will fire before dark. I've decided to slowly work back westward towards home with an eye on the sky/radar if something does try to develop.

For now it appears that the Iowa cap will once again win over another fantastic parameter day in June...

Did manage to meet up with the TWISTEX crew and spend some time chatting with them, and grabbed a few pictures with the TIV2 as they were with the TWISTEX crew today. It was good to see all of them and hope to see you guys again!!

TWISTEX & Other Chasers

Today was forecasted to be another potentially significant day of severe weather with an increased tornado potential across the plains states. Unfortunately for all of the groups out there that are doing research, from my TWISTEX buddies, to VORTEX2, and to all of the other chasers out there, today once again turned to be a big disappointment from a tornadoes standpoint.

The tornado reports today came across eastern Kansas during the early afternoon storms that were likely triggered and aided by the morning MCS. Other reports came across the high plains of Colorado where little risk was expected, and even a stray report in Nebraska that was a very brief and likely a landspout. Sunday was expected to be a strong day for thunderstorms and tornado potential, while the thunderstorm aspect wasn't a disappointment with hail larger than 5 inches in diameter, the tornado reports that may have verified were all brief and weak. This year is the lowest since 2005 as far as tornado reports, and is nearly 200 tornadoes below the last 4-year average. While there are plenty of chasers who have still had a good year, most are still very disappointed in the year thus far.

Thus, I am not too disappointed that I have had to miss this years' activities due to the birth of my first little boy. Here's to a hope that we can continue the mediocre year well into June and into this fall over the northern plains.

While I'm on the context of other chasers including TWISTEX, I would like to give my little shout-out to the group that is chasing as a part of the Discovery Channel Storm Chasers crew. TWISTEX is being displayed as a professional and pure scientific research group, as that is what they are! Tim Samaras, Dr. Bruce Lee, Dr. Cathy Finley, and Tony Laubach among others have had some luck this year; they were able to have a successful mission out in Wyoming last week as well as many others. Be sure to follow their updates as I post them on their website: http://www.twistex.org

Severe Local Storm Conference Papers

The American Meteorological Society's Severe Local Storms Conference got underway today in Savannah, Georgia. This conference features nearly a full week of presentations about every type of severe weather imaginable, from hail, lightning and tornadoes, to hurricanes and climate relations to severe storms. I was not able to go to the conference this year, but have read through several of the papers that are available online through the AMS. I thought I'd share with you some of the ones that I have found interesting, these include the talks about TWISTEX 2008, the summer research project that I have been a part of the past two years. Another paper is on the Parkersburg, IA tornado which many people may enjoy to at least look at. Of course I will also be happy to share with you a paper that I am a co-author on! If you have any questions about the papers, please leave a message here or email me (jaysonprentice(at)gmail.com).


Synoptic environments and convective modes associated with significant tornadoes in the contiguous United States
by Thompson, Grams, & Prentice

TWISTEX 2008: In situ and mobile mesonet observations of tornadoes
by Karstens et al.

Thermodynamic and kinematic analysis near and within the Tipton, KS tornado on May 29 during TWISTEX 2008
by Lee, Finley, & Samaras

Mobile mesonet observations of an intense RFD and multiple RFD gust fronts in the May 23 Quinter, Kansas tornadic supercell during TWISTEX 2008
by Finley & Lee

The Parkersburg, IA tornado
by Marshall, Jungbluth, & Baca

Fall Semester 2008

My final post on the blog during the summer of 2008, as I return to classes at Iowa State University tomorrow. This upcoming semester looks like it will be fairly light as far as classwork goes, having only 3 classes: American Indian Studies, Synoptic Meteorology, and Dynamic Meteorology II. But, I also have a 'small' project called senior thesis that I will have to be working on throughout the semester. Other credits for this semester will come from my internship at KICD Radio over the summer. I will also be starting a new internship this semester, I will be a student volunteer at the National Weather Service office in Des Moines, IA.

With my three classes, internship, and senior thesis project, along with all of the other things I usually try to do I should stay fairly busy. I have a few other things that I will like to be doing throughout the semester, including getting some finalized chase summaries on my website, instead of just my blog like they are now. I also want to try to get some new photo galleries up, maybe revamping my current galleries, and editing some previous pictures. Not to mention my potential television debut this fall with the National Geographic show that I was a part of with Tim Samaras, and another mini-show that I believe will be aired on PBS this fall.

Plenty of things going on, and I will try to keep this updated with some of those stories along with your daily weather updates that everybody enjoys. Look forward to maybe having some more photography opportunities too...

Another update with this weeks' forecast is coming tomorrow! After a chilly start this morning...

Note: Almost forgot to mention this again, but thanks to all who visit as the blog surpassed the 10,000 visitor mark last week!

Featured in ISU News

An Iowa State Press Release today features your very own Iowa Chaser, Jayson Prentice. The article discusses Iowa State's Meteorology departments' involvement with the TWISTEX project, and includes quotes and information provided by several students that have been chasing with Tim Samaras and project TWISTEX.

Read the entire article: Iowa State News Service

Also notice, the featured image on the article is taken from the collection of images by Jayson Prentice. Just thought I'd share, as I just got the email stating that the article was released through ISU, and will also be released to local and regional news later today.

Traveling Home

On the road this morning out of Wichita, KS in-route to the soggy state of Iowa. I'm sure it has been covered extensively by all of the local and national media, so I don't feel the need to go through all of the areas that have been getting hit hard or all the details on who/where is evacuated. Several roads are closed throughout the state, thus the route on my way home is even effected between Ames and Terril. It may be a while before we can see the rivers truly drop to levels that aren't threatening to flood with every rainfall, even with some breaks in the storm systems.

The last two days of chasing have been frustrating to say the least with storm development being along a cold front, creating a line of storms. Wednesday storms were both linear or embedded within a line, not to mention movement to the northeast over 40 mph. We did manage one tornado out of this storm, essentially coming up on it as it formed just to our east. Otherwise some scary scud and outflow shelf formations on the storms, along with some amazing cloud-to-ground lightning.
Thursday was slightly better, even though we managed to miss the tornadoes in southern Kansas. The structure with the storms was amazing, with a great wall cloud and lightning with the first storm. Managed to capture 3 lightning strikes handheld during the day/evening; with additional strikes at night. Quite a few great panoramic images should come out of the storms yesterday, as the structure once they went outflow was impressive. One picture that I do hope turned out was an image of the striated storm just to the east of Wichita late last night. It was the best nighttime storm that I have ever personally seen, with constant thunder and lightning strikes. The storms were impressive nonetheless, it just seemed as if the storms struggled to produce beings they were in such a line fashion along the front.

On the next ~6 hours on the road I have I will likely begin to get pictures edited, see what I can manage for panoramics, and lightning. It looks like any chasing has came to an end for a while with ridging likely across the plains. Even with the ridging, it still looks like thunderstorms may be possible, however, nothing significant appears likely.

June 12 Storm Chase

10:15 PM Update: It sounds like we'll finally be calling it a night, currently just about to turn northwest towards Wichita. Enjoyed the show just to the east of Wichita, beautiful striated storm that I believe I captured with some lightning illumination. Some other nice lightning strikes throughout the night, even now as we look towards our west/southwest as another storm has formed and is looking impressive. While sitting ~7 miles east of Rock, KS we did see several power flashes to our northwest, at this time its' unknown what damage was caused and what caused it. This will be our last day for this trip, looking to head home tomorrow...

8:20 PM Update: Hanging out between Emporia and Wichita, watching the continuous line have its' fun. The highlight of the day has likely been the light show, in which several people have gotten great shots from including Tony (already posted on his blog). We'll likely end up spending the night in Wichita, with a hopeful view of lightning to continue our fun. One thing that I will have to post is a lot of panoramics of shelfs, and a few general storm bases with wall clouds.

5:10 PM Update: Storms have fired and we are now on the chase with storms becoming severe warned already... Heading west out of Emporia.

4:45 PM Update: Sitting in Emporia, KS; awaiting the storms to finally root in and begin to become severe/tornadic. Currently watching a broken line, or line, taking shape just to the west of us... Getting everything going in the cars and then we'll be ready to head out and hopefully catch something a bit better than yesterday.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

10:45 AM Update: Packing stuff up to leave from Lincoln, NE; believe we'll be taking roads down out of Nebraska City, NE and thus landing ourselves around Yates Center, KS by 3:30 PM. More updates are possible if we stop for lunch, otherwise once we arrive in the likely sunny Yates Center!

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

9:45 AM Update: Although initially on the trip it looked like this would be a one-day chase event, with the very small chance of a Tuesday storm when we went into southern South Dakota, it has turned into a little more. Today's forecast took a nice turn into being a little more active, especially for the threat of tornadoes today in southeastern Kansas. The entire group is ready for an actual supercell that is not embedded within some long line, and one that we can actually obtain data on. That is the goal for today, leaving Lincoln, NE sometime around 11 AM to head south into Kansas and begin one last day of chasing before a ridge sets in and the TWISTEX crew will likely be down for a while. More updates later as the forecast becomes more defined, as well as our route...

June 11 Storm Chase

12:45 AM Update: A very long day today, chased storms throughout southeast Nebraska. The entire line of storms were tornado warned, from southwest Minnesota to north-central Kansas. Ends up to be a very sad day today with a scout camp north of Little Sioux, IA that is all over the news. Also it sounds like several other areas, including metro areas, that took hits tonight. I missed all of the action in northwest Iowa today, but from the sounds of it, nobody could see anything with such heavy rain wrapping around these storms. Also with such a massive line moving northeast, it was nearly like watching the storm go by and awaiting the next... A full update tomorrow is possible, however, at this time I do know what the plan is for the day.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

2:30 PM Update: Drove south for a ways along I29, have now found ourselves near Missouri Valley, IA. Have ate a nice dinner, but are still awaiting on something to become clear on which target (northwest Iowa or southeast Nebraska) will be better. At this point, it is still a wait to see which one will take shape, however, the the target of southern Nebraska and Iowa does look favorable at the moment.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

11:00 AM Update: Just as an FYI, blog updates will be fairly sporadic beings I'll be with Tony. Don't want to have too many computers (3), GPS's (3), among everything else going on. So feel free to browse Tony's Blog as well for updates on my status. I will update when possible/needed.

10:30 AM Update: The group got together this morning at 9 AM to discuss target areas for the day. Fairly large, but disorganized, complex of storms is working through areas of western Iowa, southwestern Minnesota, and even as far south as northwestern Missouri. This complex looks to be well off of the boundary that is currently situated in central Nebraska. Behind this complex of storms and ahead of this boundary, moisture has already surged northward with fairly clear skies as well. As the storms continue eastward, similar things should happen to much of the Missouri River Valley; allowing for substantial moisture and instability to setup for the afternoon hours.

Current plan looks to have us heading south along I29 to get out of the cloud deck that just won't leave this morning. The forecast definitely does not look 'great', but given if things can fall together it could certainly be a productive day. No real target as of this moment, we'll likely head south within the next hour and reevaluate throughout the afternoon (early) before things start to take form.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

12:00 AM Update: After treating today as a position day, certainly have to get something nice tomorrow although the forecast looks 'interesting' to say the least. Overnight convection, MCS's, may form both through eastern South Dakota into Minnesota and in extreme northern Kansas, eastern Nebraska into western Iowa. Currently, it looks as though both are having a hard time sustaining themselves into any type of severe mode. Cells that initially fired in northern Kansas are weakening, and the small development in vicinity of York, NE also cannot sustain itself at the moment. Although low level jet increasing would aid in their development, even if they do I feel that they would be well east of the Missouri River area by morning. This to me indicates that the latest model run by the NAM/WRF (00z) is not worth looking at too closely. They keep a large complex of storms around the Missouri valley through into the early afternoon tomorrow, much unlike anything that currently seems to be logical. With this complex hanging around the is supposed warm sector, it destroys any parameters that you would like to look at as far as surface goes...

The GFS thus is the favored at this point, although it still develops the MCS in eastern Nebraska, it moves it through central Iowa by early afternoon. This is a logical solution given storms speeds, etc. and thus is at least believable. This would leave a viable target area anywhere in the eastern third of Nebraska, moving into the western third of Iowa during the later afternoon, and evening hours. A lot of questions to still be answered come morning, but right now it looks like the day may be filled with excitement.

I will be the TWISTEX vehicle, with Tony Laubach, so beings both him and I are bloggers, be sure to check out his blog when I'm not available for updates while driving. Anything that he sees or reports, I will be right there to see the same things... Good night from Sioux City!

June 10 Storm Chase (Travel Day)

6:45 PM Update: Well after 'wasting' some time in Yankton, SD; it has been determined that today just isn't going to happen due to abysmal moisture return. The day is now a positioning day for tomorrow's potential outbreak of severe weather across portions of Nebraska and Iowa. Now in-route to Sioux City, IA where we will spend the night relaxing and looking at tomorrows forecast. An update may come later tonight pertaining to the forecast for Wednesday, but today appears to be about 99.9% over.

2:00 PM Update: I've caught my ride with the other ISU team members, Brandon Engelson and Mark Ketcham, and have continued towards our meeting point of Yankton, SD. Currently heading through Sioux City, with less than an hour and a half before meeting up and arranging vehicles once again. Today's forecast is still questionable, as moisture return thus far seems to be struggling with only mid 50s for much of Nebraska and southern South Dakota. Another update likely once we meet up in Yankton (~4 PM)...

9:15 AM Update: Although the day doesn't look great for tornadoes, the chances of a nice isolated supercell capable of large hail and some gusty winds is fairly high. A warm front will become situated across portions of southern South Dakota, and southwestern Minnesota over the afternoon hours. This front combined with a weak wave in the flow will allow for thunderstorm development along and to the north, mainly over areas of South Dakota, but as far east as the southwestern quarter of Minnesota and northwest Iowa in the later evening or overnight hours. The current chase plan is a target of Yankton, SD by mid-afternoon, then to re-adjust there during the afternoon as we await initiation.

Current RUC forecast from 12z paints a nice picture for a storm along the boundary in southern South Dakota. But, the caveat to this model picture is that moisture return via its' forecast may be substantially high (>5 degrees). This would cause a dramatic decrease in overall instability over the area, and an overall weakening of otherwise great potential. At this point, it seems like the moisture return will be the limiting factor today. Nonetheless, thunderstorm initiation is expected late this afternoon, or evening in southern South Dakota. Based on current 12z data that is in thus far, I'm leaning towards a target of Winner, SD!

Stormy Forecast & TWISTEX Operations

A lot of local meteorologists have been busy the past couple of weeks, with severe weather coming into the state in the form of large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. To add to the severe weather, all of the rain associated with the rounds of thunderstorms have created significant flooding concerns throughout Iowa and other surrounding states. Yesterday and today saw several rivers reach record depths, in some cases blowing away previous records by several feet. A lot of rural roads, and even some major highways, have been closed due to flood waters. Unfortunately, just as the rivers begin to subside another round of severe thunderstorms is on its' way over the state.

Even with only slight chances of rain in the forecast, we managed to have several thunderstorms cut across west-central Iowa this evening. They are now in more of a disorganized complex over central Iowa near the Des Moines metro and surrounding. These storms were able to become severe, with mainly a threat of marginally severe hail, although a few warnings for damaging winds have also been issued. These thunderstorms will likely maintain themselves for a while tonight, working into eastern Iowa within the next several hours.

Tomorrow has a warm front setting up to the north of the state once again, with southerly winds over the state returning moisture quickly throughout the afternoon. This strong moisture return, combined with ever-increasing temperatures, may allow for thunderstorm development once again. The best threat will be over northern Iowa, where they are situated near the warm front, however, a large portion of the state will see at least slight thunderstorm chances. The severe weather threat should once again be for large hail and damaging winds, as shear should stay further west along the front in South Dakota. A overnight complex of storms for Tuesday night isn't out of the question for a large part of the state, as they move out of South Dakota. Highs tomorrow should range from the upper 70s to mid 80s with dewpoints rising into the 60s under southerly winds. Overnight lows in the lower to upper 60s from north to south, and increased thunderstorm chances (especially northwest).

Wednesday sets the stage for the best threat of thunderstorms over the state, and the threat of severe weather (potentially significant) returns as well. A warm front should once again be positioned just to the north of the state in southern Minnesota. A low pressure center is forecasted to maintain in west-central Minnesota along/near the South Dakota border. To the south and southwest of this low, a trailing cold front should slowly move eastward during the day. Both the cold front and warm front should be sufficient to produce thunderstorms during the afternoon, with the potential for all modes of severe weather given shear and instability values of current forecasts. The best threat should once again occur over the eastern third of Nebraska, and the western half of Iowa, as well as nearby vicinities of extreme southeast South Dakota and southwestern Minnesota. More details on this threat in later updates, but definitely something for people to keep an eye and ear on once again. Highs on Wednesday near 80 in the north, to the mid 80s in the south; lows overnight ranging from near 60 in the northwest to near 70 in the southeast. As mentioned, thunderstorms likely during the afternoon over the western half; over the entire state during the overnight.

TWISTEX Update: I will be out chasing once again for this system with the TWISTEX crew, this time operating another vehicle (not the ISU car). Will be in southern South Dakota tomorrow for any potential thunderstorms that may be able to develop before the nighttime hours. An updated forecast for tomorrow's severe weather and TWISTEX operations will be made in the morning. Wednesday will be the main day of this operation, with a target possibly including a portion of western Iowa. Expect the next several updates to be focused on TWISTEX; although beings I'm actually driving a vehicle this time the updates may come less often. Look forward to more though!

May 21-27 Chase & Travel

Today finds the severe weather threat for the plains diminishing, with only minimal chances for severe weather and nearly no chance of significant severe weather. For this reason I am back on the road to Iowa (490 miles), currently traveling I70 near Salina, KS with under 6 hours of driving remaining. I will be going through plenty of video and pictures over the next few days from this past trip, all-in-all I believe I have 8 tornadoes, wind gusts over 100 mph, and 2"+ hail to show for the trip. It is by far the best chase I have been on and certainly glad that I was a part of the TWISTEX group for this event.

Other happenings on Sunday, including the Iowa tornado that went through Parkersburg and New Hartford areas are disappointed in the stand point that it was a deadly severe weather outbreak this past week. I have not even had time to look back at all of the events that took place even in Kansas, but I do know that people were killed in western kansas on Thursday and/or Friday. If you read through the information on the TWISTEX site and what we are doing, I'm certainly glad to be aiding in scientific research on storms, etc...

My previously scheduled time with TWISTEX has came to an end, and others are going to take in place my role that I had this past week. I will still continue to chase this season, likely throughout the northern plains outbreaks and local chases in my northwest Iowa region. Maybe I will meet up with the TWISTEX crew somewhere in the northern plains and enjoy conservations like I have this week. It was a great week with the storms and the people, so just to put out a nice thanks to Tim Samaras, Carl Young, Dr. Bruce Lee and Dr. Cathy Finley, Tony Laubach, Verne Carlson and his sons, and my fellow car-driver Chris Karstens. Enjoyed meeting several of the other chasers out there this past week, glad that I have not heard of any significant injuries to those that were out there during that crazy two day stretch.

Next chance of good severe weather looks to come on Thursday, with the theat even beting in the northern plains states of SD/NE/MN/IA! More updates on this threat in upcoming day(s).

May 26 Chase

9:00 PM Update: Now filling up with gas in Stafford, KS and on our way back to Great Bend, KS where we began the day. Intercepted the storm to the east of Pratt, KS as it was tornado warned, however, not too much was observed with the storm going outflow dominant within a half hour of our arrival. Should get to Great Bend before 10 PM and get some supper there...

7:05 PM Update: The chase is already over for the day, dropping south from Great Bend ahead of a clump of thunderstorms until finally coming upon the tornadic warned storm near Greensburg, KS. The storm looked good at times, however once that occurred then the cell had to ingest another cell that was coming up from the south. After three or four cell mergers, the storm had finally had enough and went mainly outflow dominant. In the process of the chase, all four of the vehicles managed to run into golf ball sized and larger (2"+) hail. This managed to put cracks into 3 of the 4 vehicles windshields and dented all four. We'll review the HD video we had running in our dash to hopefully get a few vid-grabs of the hail. In the meantime, headed back to Great Bend, KS to spend the night and in-route to bust through a large line of... Actually now in-bound towards a tornado warned cell that also has tornado reported, so the chase is not quite over!

2:55 PM Update: Been watching the outflow for the past hour plus, it looks to have stalled out on a line from near Medford, OK through Great Bend, KS. Warm front just to the north, dryline well off to the west at this point which is only a small concern at this point. Current tornado watch has us fairly well centered in the middle of it currently...

1:25 PM Update: Sitting just outside of Larned, KS after eating at a local Pizza Hut in town. Now watching Tony Laubach taking some pictures of the local wildlife, cows and goats. After the morning discussion we were aiming more towards the KS/OK border, however now with the warm front positioned well north of the previous forecasts we are going to hold here. Outflow boundary to our east, moving west, may come into play later on this afternoon. Instability is amazing given the very warm and moist air that is present, hopefully the shear can also be realized with some backing winds. Some flat cumulus starting to develop, but feel that another hour or two should start to see the storms develop.

May 25 Chase

8:10 PM Update: Heading back to Great Bend after today's chase, intercepted several tornadic cells although only one or two showed promise. Came away with several nice images of a rotating meso that was very low to the ground, and also of a nice shelf as the storms continued to gust out. As we sat well south of Rush Center, KS during the past hour we saw several outflow gusts that picked up dust from fields/roadways. Came away with some nice images of that event as well. Not as good as Thursday/Friday, but it wasn't expected to be and overall I didn't think it was a terrible chase. I am sad to hear that instead of the lining crap that we had here, northeastern Iowa got to see a nice supercell that unfortunately may have caused some significant damage.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

6:40 PM Update: Sitting south of Rush Center, KS on the edge of this lining out crap of a line here in Kansas. Doesn't look like much is going to happen here, but not quite over yet. Final update when we are on our way to the hotel later...

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1:00 PM Update: Tornado watch already issued for portions of western/central Kansas and already a few cells and good cumulus cloud fields showing up on radar and visible satellite respectively. We are currently still westward on I70 and look to remain so for the time being. TWISTEX blog was updated with the latest from Tim, today looks to hold some nice hope and tomorrow even better.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

8:00 AM Update: Already up, hopefully with others in the group doing the same, and getting ready to depart for a target in northwestern Kansas. The morning SPC update solidified are concerns about the area, as they introduced a moderate risk with 10% tornado risk, hatched as well for the threat of a potentially significant tornado once again. Sadly this doesn't look to venture too far from Thursday & Friday's storm paths that went through that same area. It isn't going to be the greatest of areas to chase, with the knowledge that all unpaved roads are not in the best of condition. I'm pretty sure that by the time this trip is done, I may very well know northwestern Kansas as good as my home area in northwestern Iowa!

The forecast does look promising, as a strong surface low develops and deepens during the afternoon hours in eastern Colorado. This will provide winds from the southeast over parts of western/central Kansas. These southeasterly winds will provide the area with enhanced low level shear to combine with substantial instability. A pseudo-warm front may be draped across northern Kansas, with dryline across western KS southward into the OK/TX panhandles. The best tornado play will be where the winds locally become southeasterly in response to the low, moisture pooling may also occur in the potential trip point region in western Kansas as well. Does not look to be a bad chase day in western Kansas though at this point.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1:15 AM Update: After a one-day bust, hopes are not all that bad as at least two more days of chasing is in store for us in Kansas. More information on how tomorrow will play out and our plans will surface tomorrow morning, but currently it looks to be an early departure from Lincoln, NE in order to make a western Kansas target.

May 24 Chase

8:15 PM Update: We moved slightly east mid-afternoon to the south of Aurora, NE to await the dryline that never came. The dryline ended up actually retreating to the west to the south of Grand Island or the I80 corridor and even north where the dryline was still moving east the storms struggled. Although several chasers/spotters reported a wall cloud or funnel, these reports came without warnings from the NWS so the validity of any rotation is suspect at this point. Maybe some more posts tonight once we look over some things from days past, and ahead for the next couple of days potential. Overall, today couldn't be as good as the past two and most chasers busted unless you were somehow lucky enough to be in northern Oklahoma.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

3:45 PM Update: Still awaiting some good signs of convection, some small cells to our northwest that may be able to do something. At this time however, they don't look like much. Still working on issues with the mesonets, etc., will hopefully be ready to go shortly as tornado watch has already been issued for the area.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

3:00 PM Update: Currently just to the south of Grand Island, awaiting the dryline to develop here in central/eastern Nebraska. Managing some minor repairs still, but doesn't look to be too much longer before we start to see something on the day. Definitely does not look to be as good as the past two, but hopes still good that we'll see something today! Overall the reasoning behind not as high tornado hopes includes the fact that overall shear is not as good, with more southerly flow at the surface to go along with southwesterly flow aloft. Instability (moisture) not as good either, but still sufficient.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

12:00 PM Update: Currently on the roads of Kansas, just south of Nebraska and our target area for the day in southeast Nebraska. Today doesn't seem nearly as good as the previous two, but the entire group is still confident that tornadic supercells will not be lacking today. Today may actually turn out slightly better to the fact that we won't have continual development and a training of tornadic supercells. Or this could also be a bad thing as if we lose the one tornadic storm, then there is nothing else to fall back on. Either way, today looks to be another solid day of chasing for many who have taken off this holiday weekend to get their storm chasing 'vacation'. Currently the best forecast will have a cold front over SD/NE with a dryline as well over parts of southern NE/KS/OK/TX. Surface winds from the southeast should favor convergence along these fronts with winds to the southwest or west. Instability should not be lacking, even though dewpoints are not nearly as high as yesterday in Kansas. Should not be quite as exciting or early as yesterday's beginning, so I should have another update later this afternoon.

May 23 Chase

Several Updates will be posted within this post, the posts will be in chronological order with the most recent update being first. The time of the posts will be shown in bold for ease of use (All times are CDT).

12:45 AM Update: Another late update after another amazing day, at least 3 tornadoes (likely more) around the town of Quinter, KS. We began with a nice cone to the south and west of Quinter, which included a satellite tornado. We then captured at least two more tornadoes north of Quinter which included some intense moments with a strong RFD gust that came around and wrap around this tornado. Once this occurred, we were left with a large tornado in front of us in which was at least a mile wide if not greater. Once we managed to get out of that situation, we ended up not having any great road options to other storms to the south and were left with only some nice views of potential RFD's, etc... I'm sure there is plenty of video/pictures of all of those tornadoes that we captured as well. Today's chase facts included a total of 9 hours, 10 minutes of chasing and 269 total miles. Tornado count for the two-day adventure thus far is 7, potentially up to 9 after video review. More to go as at least two more days of chasing is left to go.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

3:15 PM Update: First tornado warning of the day to the south of Gove, KS once again. We are just north and getting ready to turn south to intercept the storm, very large hail is going to be a concern today. But, the bigger concern will undoubtedly be the tornadoes that are likely throughout the I70 corridor. Updates are not likely until we reach the end of the day now...

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

12:15 PM Update: Just fueling up in Hays, KS and getting ready to depart and head northwest on I70 back fairly close to where we began the day yesterday. Today once again looks like a high quality chase day, with a dryline draped across western Kansas and a warm front across Kansas from northwest to southeast. The best threat of tornadoes looks to extend across Kansas, specifically northwest and north-central; then also over parts of western Nebraska. Spent the morning getting the car cleaned out after an adventure in mud, rain, etc... (Another story that I didn't mention last night). As for yesterday, if you are interested in some greater detail of what myself and a few others saw you can check out Chris Karstens Blog. That'll be it for this update, time to check out some maps for today and pick out a nice target, and also find some food.

May 22 Chase

Several Updates will be posted within this post, the posts will be in chronological order with the most recent update being first. The time of the posts will be shown in bold for ease of use (All times are CDT).

12:45 AM Update: Spending the night in Hays, KS after a tremendous day of chasing throughout north-central Kansas. The day totaled ~8 hours of chasing fun while covering just over 300 miles (307 to be exact). We had kind of a late start out of Goodland today, but that turned out alright as we bagged at least 4 tornadoes around the Hoxie, KS area. One of the four included the multi-vortex that was near Hozie and was quite tremendous in its' circulation; ended up within a mile of that as it crossed highway 24. To the northeast of Hoxie along highway 23 also held some fun as we had two ground circulations develop within 100 yards of the mesonets. A solid day with a lot more stories then I have to offer tonight, all the more exciting as we still have at least 3 more days of chasing to go!

3:05 PM Update: Finally got outside of Goodland, KS after getting all of our mesonet problems and logistics out of the way. As we left we got a dose of some pea to just above dime sized hail and the storm went severe warned. Now headed east on I70 and then will likely dive south or await the arrival of a line of storms, which now include a tornado warned storm. Very windy, 35-45 knots on average, with plenty of tumbleweeds to catch in grills like Verne Carlson already has. The fun is about to begin with storm motions 40-50 mph and plenty of them. As stated, Verne Carlson is with the crew and actually has his live streaming online, check it out here.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

9:00 AM Update: With several hours of waiting on our hands, we are stuck looking at everything you can look at as far as model runs and mesoanalysis go. Samaras, Laubach, Carlson, and others should have to depart Denver by 11 AM CDT or within 2 hour to make it to Goodland, KS by 2 PM CDT as planned. Model forecasts from last night and this morning are liking a surging dryline, but I'm not sure if I want to believe whole-heartedly in that decision. The warm front is also shown to not be nearly as far north as previous forecasts, and although it should surge northward it has a question in how far north it may make it. I believe that we'll drop south from Goodland, maybe a bit east if the dryline does look like it will make that surge. Storm motion are expected to be nearly north, ranging from 30-40 knots, but any strong right-mover should be able to go northeast or maybe easterly at a pace of only 20 kts (I hope). I may throw in another update this morning once I hear word from Tim, otherwise look for the next update to come early/mid afternoon as we make our adjustments.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

8:00 AM Update Awoke to the sounds of constructions workers leaving the Super 8 here in Goodland, although I'm sure there are plenty of chasers around as well in town. The rumor that Colby, KS was chalked full of chasers was true, the Discovery/TIV/DOW circus group was staying at the Super 8 over there. Plenty of chasers out today and likely the remainder of the weekend as this is shaping up to be one of the better outbreaks of the year, with the addition of it being in extremely chaseable territory. Thus far the plan for today will include sitting back and relaxing here in Goodland until ~2 PM CDT when the remainder of the group will hopefully arrive. After that, we'll head off to our best target area which will likely come a bit south, maybe east, from where we are now in Goodland.

May 21 Travel Day

Several Updates will be posted within this post, the posts will be in chronological order with the most recent update being first. The time of the posts will be shown in bold for ease of use (All times are CDT).


8:15 PM Update: We have arrived in Goodland, KS at the Super 8 which features only 2 more rooms left (both smoking). Lady at the front desk shared that Colby, KS hotel rooms were booked with various chasers so it was wise that we kept moving west and arrived here. Several severe thunderstorms just 50 more miles to the west, however no need to drive another hour to get to them and another hour back to a hotel room so we've stopped here and will likely spend the rest of the night looking at tomorrow's prospects and watching some television. This will likely be the last update until tomorrow morning when the May 22 chase post can get underway. Here are the details thus far from the trip:

May 20/21 Miles: 711
May 20/21 Time: 11 Hrs, 10 min

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

5:15 PM Update: Although some thunderstorm activity has initiated along the dryline, we don't feel like a chase taking us further north is worth our time. With tomorrow's target likely be in northwestern Kansas, we've hopped off of I80 and are zigging and zagging down to McCook, NE where we will then likely continue into Kansas. Although this is likely to be a fairly long drive, this should set us up for nearly no driving for tomorrows' target. Both Tony Laubach and Verne Carlson have headed out today and are around the northeastern Colorado storms. We will be keeping an eye on storms as they continue to develop along the dryline, maybe a good show can be along our route?! Next update likely to come once we've reached our destination for the night.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

12:50 PM Update: On the road, getting all settled into our Cobalt, and enjoying the 200-some XM Satellite radio stations. The SPC expanded todays' risk in the far western regions with an increased hail threat as well. We should reach Ogallala, NE before 6 PM MDT and thus have time to view any storms that are in extreme southwest Nebraska and vicinity. The day 2 outlook from the SPC upgraded to moderate risk and had some nice wording in place, thus tomorrow looks like a great day for chasing in Kansas! Next update will likely be when we reach Ogallala, NE.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

8:15 AM Update: The ISU crew (Chris Karstens & Jayson Prentice) will depart today from Ames, IA and begin our journey out west for a several day event of severe weather. TWISTEX doesn't look to become operational until Thursday, with others arriving in Denver this evening. The ISU crew will treat this as a travel day, and a potential chase day if storms can fire along I80 in southwestern Nebraska or in extreme northeastern Colorado. Previous departure was expected to be around the current time, however with the severe threat being limited the departure from Ames has been moved back to ~Noon today. We may just leave slightly earlier than that, as the SPC has expanded the slight risk and latest RUC forecasts have some favorable parameters within our target area of traveling.

Chase Forecast: May 21/22

TWISTEX will become active tomorrow as all involved prepare for several days of active severe weather in the western plains. Chris Karstens and I will depart Ames early tomorrow morning and hit I80 to the west through Nebraska, hopefully arriving mid-afternoon. Although Wednesday does hold some potential for severe weather, mainly for large hail, the day will mainly be a travel day unless something drastic can occur with the forecast. Nonetheless, the option will be there to go after a storm that may be able to form along the high plains of NE/CO, maybe Wyoming?

Wednesday should feature a deepening low over northeastern Colorado, which in response will allow for strong moisture return into the high plains. The corresponding moisture return will lead towards a very narrow axis of a warm sector just east and north of the low. Currently the SPC outlooks indicate the best chance being north and northeast of the low, with lesser concern on areas just east of the low. Further south along a trough, or pseudo-dryline the capping will be of major concern with very warm 700 temperatures and thus no risk has been outlined. The tornado threat is likely minimal with the lack of shear and overall instability that will be featured, thus a large hail threat is the main concern for this forecast. Likely to have multiple clusters of thunderstorms to the north of the low over the Nebraska panhandle and southeastern Wyoming where surface based CAPE values between 500-1500 J/kg will yield storms capable of producing large hail. Further south to the east and southeast of the low, while moisture and overall instability should not be a problem; 700mb temperatures of 11-15C will likely hamper development. This area may be an area to watch though, as if a storm can breach the capping inversion it does seem that conditions are favorable for severe storms as well. Beings the terrain of southeastern Wyoming is not that favorable, plus the idea that the threat on Thursday will also be near the NE/KS borders it does look like we'll play along the NE/CO/KS corners and hope for that rogue storm.

Thursday is coming together for a significant severe weather event along the high plains. Continued low pressure system in northeastern Colorado will continue to be in place, with the aid of a strong warm front and dryline will focus the severe weather threat.


Strong moisture return as indicated by the green arrows will continue throughout the day on Thursday, providing mid 60s dewpoints throughout the warm sector. Upper level support with good vorticity advection and strong divergence should be located across western Kansas and Nebraska. The best low level and overall shear does however seem to be limited the further south you go, indicated by the blue-lined area on the map. This confines the best tornado potential to the southwestern portions of Nebraska, with perhaps a good threat somewhat south along the dryline in the northern half of Kansas. Capping should be in place throughout the warm sector, however, a breakable cap does seem to be indicated by models over the northern half of Kansas and throughout Nebraska in the warm sector. Storm motions are likely to be north/northeastward, with any strong supercells being able to move east/northeast instead. For this reason, the best tornadic target area is likely to be placed in southwestern Nebraska and northern Kansas along the dryline (indicated by black outline). Large hail seemingly will be the main threat of the day, with damaging winds also likely. A lot of time for details in the forecast to be worked out and I will continue to update the forecast tomorrow and on Thursday morning.

TWISTEX Deployment

Latest update from Tim Samaras indicates that TWISTEX will be active beginning Wednesday, and continuing until the trough pattern breaks down. This means an extended period of chasing along the high plains from Wednesday through at least Friday, with the potential to continue chasing into early next week. I will be taking the trip down to Ames tomorrow night, leaving Ames for extreme southwest Nebraska early Wednesday morning.

I've been dealing with computer issues today, backlight on my laptop seems to be failing. So no good forecast update for today, however, tomorrow will feature a nice forecast update for Wednesday and Thursday chases.

You can keep up to date on the latest fielding status updates from TWISTEX on the www.twistex.org website.

Upcoming Week Excitement

We'll start out the week with much less wind than what we saw yesterday over the state, in response we won't warm-up quite as much as when that wind was in place. Highs today over the state of Iowa should range from the mid 60s in the east to the mid 70s along the Missouri. Lows tonight should fall into the 40s to mid 50s from east to west, with clouds and some showers/thunderstorms moving into the state from the northwest. The remainder of the week will be in southerly flow, with a warm front that will slowly move northward and potentially pass through the state during the latter half of the week. Temperatures will be at or above normal, with some impressive moisture making its' way up to the state; currently the GFS wants to paint 70s for dewpoints over the state. More on the system that will effect the plains state in the chasing section below...

Highs for the week will range from the upper 60s to lower 80s from east to west on Monday, the cooler temperatures in the east will be in response to clouds and showers present. Some lingering overnight on Monday, with lows near 50 to the mid 50s from northeast to southwest. Tuesday's highs won't change too much, near 70 in the east to near 80 in the west; lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s from northeast to southwest. Wednesday may be the first of many chances for thunderstorms over the state, with highs ranging from near 70 to near 80 from northeast to southwest; warm front likely just south of the state. The severe weather threat is likely to be minimal with no upper level support and meager moisture. Lows Wednesday night will show the increased moisture, near 50 to near 60 across the state as southerly winds continue just above the surface. Thursday and Friday may be highly variable dependent upon the system's movement, but current forecasts will show mid 70s to mid 80s across the state. Lows overnight in the mid 50s to mid 60s, with dewpoints in the same respect over the state. Chances of thunderstorms have been introduced in the forecast for both days with the warm front lingering around the state, likely draped over the state on Friday. This indicates the best chance for severe weather is likely on Friday with the frontal passage. Saturday may also see warm temperatures and high humidity with more chances of thunderstorms and severe weather. A lot of changes may come into play, likely trimming off precip chances for a night or two and focusing more on one or two of the last four days during the week. More information on the severe weather chances will likely be introduced throughout the week as chasing resumes on the plains.

TWISTEX Update: No official word from Samaras and crew on what the plan may be for the remainder of the week (EDIT: Update received 9:30 this morning with likely operations by Thursday), however severe weather chances look to resume as early as Wednesday and persist through the weekend potentially. Models still having trouble resolving what this deep trough will do, whether it will slowly make its' way onto the plains or if it will cutoff and sit itself down in the southwest. Either way it looks to at least give the high plains some good severe weather chances for a couple of days, with the potential for a threat to move out onto the central plains by Friday/Saturday, etc.

Wednesday looks to have a strong surface low over the high plains of CO/NE with associated warm front and dryline bulging eastward. Moisture likely only into the mid 50s just ahead of the low, but for the high plains this should be sufficient. Shear in the lower levels will also be sufficient for sustaining updrafts, however upper level support could be better. The big wrench in this day may be the increasing temperatures at 850 and 700, potentially meaning we could be looking at elevated, large hailers over western portions of NE/KS and maybe eastern CO. May not be a bad chase day for structure and hail, especially with the target area being in the same area for Thursday's event.

Thursday may be the best day of the system, with forecasted triple point over some part of NE/KS. Sufficient moisture and heating south of the boundary should give way to substantial instability. Although a capping inversion is likely to exist, the combination of heating and the lift with associated waves in the mid-levels should aid in thunderstorm development along the dryline and warm front. The best shear at this point looks to be forecasted along the warm front, or near the triple point. This will lean me to believe the best target area will fall along the KS/NE border (warm front) or northern Kansas (dryline & triple point).

Overall the system may continue to produce severe weather for the week and weekend over the plains states. Low pressure system, warm front and associated cool front will all be potential players in the severe weather setup. A lot of questions still in how the system will evolve and how quick or if the trough will even move out into the plains. Expect daily updates throughout the week on the severe weather threat...