The Return of Spring

This past weekends' winter storm left snowfall across all but extreme southern Iowa, with the highest amounts occurring in three different locations (northwest Iowa, extreme west-central Iowa, and central Iowa). The highest snowfall report came from Eldora, IA where a measured 10 inch snowfall was reported, this high snowfall came with some thunder and a total of 1.03" of liquid. For a quick overview of where the snow fell, take a look at the storm total map below:





Temperatures have increased over the past two days, but have been hampered in the areas where significant snowfall was received. With today's warm temperatures, the snowfall across much of the state has disappeared which will allow temperatures to warm even more in the coming days. A quick look at our upcoming high temperatures shows upper 40s to upper 50s from north to south likely on Wednesday. Thursday high temperatures from near 50 to the upper 50s from northwest to southeast; and Friday's high temperatures in the lower to mid 50s throughout the state. Expect some showers to work into the state for Thursday night and continue into Friday which will moderate temperatures some. The weekend looks similar, with another storm system working into the state for the late weekend could bring even more precipitation and some cooler temperatures.

Another Winter Storm!!!

After this weekends' winter storm that gave parts of southeast Iowa a few inches of the white stuff, and saw nearly half of the state at least see some snow flurries; we'll up for another winter storm to scrape by the state. Tonight has a strong low developing and slowly moving eastward overnight, with snow to the north and west that will give parts of northwest Iowa anywhere from 1-3" of snow by the end of Tuesday. Other parts of the state will see some light to moderate rain, maybe even a few rumbles of thunder across the central portions of the state tonight. A dry slot will also wrap around the strong low and cut-off much of the precipitation for areas south of Highway 20.

This storm system is just one of many that may move through and affect parts of the state over the next week or so...

The low track over Iowa will spare the state from much of the precip, as the heaviest bands will fall both north and west of the state. Parts of the Dakotas and into Minnesota will be looking at approximately a foot of snow or more by the end of tomorrow. Extreme northwest Iowa has the best chance of accumulation snow, with 1-3" currently forecasted. Just across into parts of SD/MN will have the shot of 3-6" of snowfall, which show how tight of a gradient this storm has; much similar to this past weekends. Light snow and rain will likely move over the northern third of the state through tomorrow, while much of the state south of there will remain dry due to the large expanse of dry air that will wrap-up around the low.

Another update with any of northwest Iowa's snow accumulations and a look ahead at the remainder of the week tomorrow night.

Winter Returns?

Many forecasters as well as I have been following the major storm system that is moving onto the plains this evening, and will track northeastward as we enter the end of the week and into the weekend. This storm system at the beginning of the week was centered or just south of Iowa, leaving much of the state under several inches and even feet of snow! Now as the system gets closer and we have a slightly better idea as to the track it appears that the heaviest snow may fall out into the southern plains of KS/OK/TX over the next 48 hours. Blizzard watches and other advisories are being issued for those areas, where over a foot of snow in areas of TX/OK/KS are appearing likely, not to mention the heavy snows off of the Rockies in CO! The low pressure system is still expected to move northeast once across Kansas/Oklahoma, and portions of southeast Iowa are still in-line to receive some significant snowfall amounts.

Precipitation across much of the southeast half of the state is possible, with a rain/snow mix being the going forecast. However, as the low continues to move northeast the cold air behind the low will quickly rush in and be able to turn the precipitation into snow. By that time it appears that the precipitation will be confined to an area that is southeast of a Lamoni to Oskaloosa to Dubuque line. Areas southeast of this line appear to be looking at 2-5 inches of snowfall, with the possibility of some isolated higher amounts.

Unfortunately, a very busy week at hand will have me deferring you to the local forecasters and National Weather Service for updates on this storm as it nears. For now it does appear that Friday and Saturday may be quite snowy for parts of southeast and eastern Iowa!

And if you're disappointed that you missed out on this one, it appears that we may have the potential for two more strong storms that may bring heavy rain or snow to parts of the state next week! Updates on those likely coming on Sunday!

Winter Storm: Mar 10

Although only a small portion of the state will see winter precipitation, this will still be one of the main highlights of our storm system that is currently effecting the state. While thunderstorms and showers should dominate the forecast for all but northwest Iowa, this will create the potential for additional flooding and overall saturated conditions. Storm total precipitation should range from a few tenths across the diagonal of the state to upwards of a half inch across southeast Iowa. These heavier amounts are likely to come from isolated thunderstorms, some of which over extreme southeast Iowa may be able to reach severe limits with strong winds and large hail. Across northwest Iowa, a mixture of sleet and snow seems likely, along with some freezing rain during the early hours of the event. Snow accumulations should generally only be 1-3 inches for areas that are currently under a Winter Weather Advisory; other parts of the state bordering this advisory will see snowfall but generally no accumulations.

The other part of this storm system will be the cold air funneling in behind the low pressure system, and the strong winds that will move in tomorrow afternoon and overnight. Highs tomorrow will range from near 20 in northwest Iowa as they remain to in the cold air; while southwest Iowa will attempt to reach the 60s in the warm sector of the low pressure system. The cold air moves through the entire state by Tuesday night, bringing lows down into the single digits across northwest Iowa and the upper teens across southeast Iowa. Highs on Wednesday will only reach the teens across the northwest, and the lower 30s across the southeast. We'll look to slowly warm-up through the week, and continue to warm into the weekend.

Severe & Winter Storm: Mar. 7-8

As we head into the weekend, showers and thunderstorms are entering portions of western and southern Iowa. These showers and thunderstorms will likely continue across the state throughout the nighttime hours, and through the afternoon tomorrow. Total rainfall amounts may be quite heavy, greater than an inch in most areas, with up to 2-3 inches possible across parts of the state. Due to this heavy amount of rain this early in the spring, the Davenport NWS has issued a flash flood watch across its' entire area. The Des Moines NWS did state that rises in rivers are expected, although they expect it to remain with the banks for most, if not all, rivers.

Overnight tonight, and potentially late Saturday night, there is the potential for some severe thunderstorms. Overnight tonight, the main threat with any thunderstorm will be the potential for marginally severe hail. This has already occurred over northern Missouri, and will not be surprised to see a few warnings across the southern half of the state for some 3/4" to 1" diameter hail. Thunderstorms on Saturday are expected to initiate over Kansas, where clear skies or at least more favorable conditions will give way to new development. This may congeal into a larger complex of storms that will move northeast into the overnight. This complex of storms may reach the far southern counties in the state, giving them the chance at some additional large hail and/or damaging winds.

Another complex situation occurs beginning Saturday night, as cold air enters the state behind the exiting low pressure system that will be over eastern Iowa. This cold air both at the surface and aloft will give way to frozen precipitation over much of northern Iowa. Currently the NWS in Sioux Falls has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for portions of northwest Iowa where a combination of freezing rain and accumulation snow is likely to occur Saturday night and into early Sunday. Some portions of northern Iowa have the potential for 3-6 inches of snow according to the latest models; with some higher amounts even being forecasted in both the NAM and GFS. Expect a combination of freezing rain and snow on Saturday night anywhere north of Highway 20; with accumulations of snow being likely. The amounts are going to be hard to pinpoint, given that the speed and amount of cold air will determine how quickly in changes over and thus how much snow places will see.

Be sure to check out the latest radar image on the Iowa Chaser Homepage: http://www.iowachaser.com

Winter Storm: Feb. 26 Recap

The bulk of the storm has moved off into the Great Lakes region, with some lingering thunderstorms across the central plains (MO/AR). Behind the system, strong northwest winds along with some lingering precipitation are still creating some hazardous conditions. Those that received several tenths of freezing rain today are now seeing some power problems due to the winds bouncing the power lines. Road conditions currently indicate that much of north-central and northwest Iowa has ice/sleet covering them. Parts of northern Iowa may see some light to moderate snow overnight as the wrap-around precipitation from the strong low moves to the south out of Minnesota.

The Des Moines NWS did not receive any significant reports of ice accumulation and sleet, with many areas receiving less than a tenth of an inch of ice or less than a half inch of sleet. The more impressive reports may have been with the up to an inch diameter hail that fell within the Des Moines metro just after Noon. You can read the entire summary of their local storm report's here: Des Moines NWS LSR's

Sioux Falls NWS and northwest Iowa received some more impressive amounts, with nearly a quarter-inch of ice accumulation near Spencer this morning. A new report this evening from Spirit Lake mentions that they have just over an inch of snow with a glaze of ice as well. You can read the Sioux Falls NWS listing of local storm reports here: Sioux Falls NWS LSR's

Both Omaha and Davenport NWS offices saw mainly rain across their region, thus the lack of winter-type reports. Some heavy rain reports, and hail reports came in with the thunderstorms that moved across their forecast areas. The NWS office in LaCrosse that covers parts of northeast Iowa saw mainly snow today, with the greater amounts in Minnesota and Wisconsin. All of the Iowa reports looked to be under 2 inches of snow...

Look forward to the next storm system that will begin to effect the state already tomorrow afternoon! Details in the next update...

Winter Storm: Feb. 26 Update #3

Thunderstorms are the key to todays' weather, with thunder being reported throughout the line of precipitation from southern Minnesota through central Iowa. North and along of Highway 20 reports of thunder-sleet and thunder-snow are coming in, while south of Highway 20 the precipitation is falling as rain. Beyond this line of thunderstorms is the cold front, indicating a likely end of precipitation and this winter storm for the most part. Total accumulations are likely going to be near expected for most areas in the north, perhaps just under the forecasted values given current reports.

Eastern Iowa will see continued thunderstorms throughout the afternoon, with some potential of severe thunderstorms over southeast Iowa. Once again, portions of the north will see sleet and snow, perhaps some freezing rain; while areas in the south see rain throughout this event. Additional updates are possible throughout the afternoon...

Winter Storm: Feb. 26 Update #2

A very brief update on the ongoing both winter and severe weather over western Iowa. Freezing rain has become a major problem across much of northwest Iowa this morning, with many roadways already being reported completely covered with ice. These conditions are not likely to improve as precipitation is expected to continue for the next few hours over those locations. Expect this precipitation to move east/northeast with time this morning, making it near the I-35 corridor by the Noon hour across the northern half of the state.

Also of concern this morning is severe weather... On the southern edge of the precipitation there has been a few thunderstorms, one of which has become severe with the capabilities of producing penny sized hail. Several reports were received near Onawa and surrounding areas of this penny sized hail... An additional storm has also become severe in Pottowattamie and Shelby counties, also capable of 3/4" hail.

Reports now coming in on how much freezing rain has accrued so far, and also how much sleet has fallen in some areas. A very tricky forecast remains with rain turning to sleet/snow, and freezing rain and sleet falling throughout the north with snow soon to come. Additional updates are possible around Noon and later in the afternoon...

Winter Storm: Feb. 26

Another winter storm with all forms of precipitation is expected to impact the state of Iowa beginning early tomorrow, and continuing into Thursday night. Areas of the state will see just rain, others rain and snow, and some freezing rain, sleet, and snow! Travel conditions are likely to be hazardous throughout the day no Thursday across roughly the northern half of the state with ice, sleet, and snow all likely.

Precipitation will begin across the state around sunrise tomorrow for much of western Iowa, and will quickly continue to cover the entire state by Thursday afternoon. Western Iowa will begin to see an end to the precip by evening, with eastern Iowa seeing and end towards midnight. The highest precip totals are likely to remain over the southern half of Minnesota, and southeast Iowa. These two areas are likely to see only one precip type, snow over Minnesota, and rain over southeast Iowa. Between I-90 and I-80 is another story, with the potential for significant icing making headlines towards the Highway 20 corridor. Weather models continue to be in fairly good agreement between the type of precipitation likely over areas of the state, however, there will have to given some leeway until the precipitation begins and the temperatures at the surface and lower levels dictate what type of precip actually does fall.

An update to the forecast will be posted later tonight, however, at this time some areas are likely to see 2-5 inches of snow across northwest and extreme northern Iowa. Other areas along the Highway 20 corridor will not only see 1-3 inches of snow, but potentially a tenth to quarter of an inch of ice accumulation. Between Highways 20 and 30, a tenth of an inch of ice is possible with a mix of rain/snow as well. Those south of Highway 30 are likely to see mainly rain, although some snow may mix in towards evening hours. A complete update and summary of precipitation types and totals are likely tonight.

Winter Storm: Feb. 25 Update #1

Forecasts are continuing to converge onto a solution for tomorrows' winter storm and the NWS offices have changed the Winter Storm Watches to different advisories and warnings. A very complex forecast still with any slight changes not only in surface temperatures, but temperatures just above the surface changing the type of precipitation received. Once again all modes of winter precipitation are forecast across some part of the state...

Areas of southeast Iowa currently under No Advisory/Warning are expecting mainly rain during the morning and afternoon hours, with a slight chance of a sleet/snow mix towards the evening hours for areas nearest to the advisories.

Those currently under a Winter Weather Advisory, north of a line from Denison to Ames to Waterloo and to LaCrosse, WI. Some rain may be possible early in the south, otherwise a mixture of freezing rain and sleet likely through the morning and early afternoon. Total ice accumulations of one to two tenths of an inch possible, with 1-3 inches of snow/sleet also possible.

Parts of north-central Iowa are under a Winter Storm Warning, where freezing rain is likely to begin during the morning hours. By mid-afternoon this freezing rain will begin to turn to sleet and finally all snow. Total accumulations include one tenth to a quarter of an inch of ice; and 2-4 inches of sleet/snow.

Just north of the state, precipitation should fall as snow throughout the event leading to significant snow accumulations. A total of 4-8 inches is likely throughout southern Minnesota, eastern South Dakota, and into Wisconsin during the overnight tomorrow. Additional storm updates are possible tomorrow to update any temperature changes, and their effect on precipitation type.

Warmer!

Temperatures today and tomorrow will once again feel like spring is on the way. Highs today should range from near 40 in the northeast to the upper 50s in the southwest; and from the lower 40s to upper 50s tomorrow. Lows tonight in the mid 20s to lower 30s should be expected as clear skies will allow plenty of cooling still. Beyond Wednesday the weather once again turns to a late winter scenario with rain and a few rumbles of thunder possible in the south, rain/freezing rain and snow, and all snow in the north. In other words, a messy situation is in the forecast for Wednesday night through Thursday for much of the state.

Precipitation should begin over the southwest half of the state on Wednesday night or early Thursday, and continue throughout the day on Thursday; even into Thursday night for the eastern third of the state. Lows Wednesday night should be in the lower 20s across the north to the mid 30s in the south. Highs on Thursday are expected to range from near 20 in the northwest, to the lower 40s in the extreme southeast. As the entire state moves into the cold sector late Thursday, overnight lows on Thursday night may range from near zero in the northeast to the lower 20s in the south.

With the complex and wide range of forecasted temperatures, it puts several questions in the forecast for precipitation type across the state. It does appear that much of the northern third will see snow throughout the system, leading to anywhere from 2-6 inches of accumulation. Between Highways 18 and 30, there definitely seems to be potential for freezing rain as well with lower levels warmer to above freezing while surface temperatures remain at or just below freezing. With many varaiables still uncertain, the amount of ice accumulation is a big question, but does appear that it could range from just a glaze to a tenth of an inch or more. For the southern third, most precipitation looks to fall as rain as temperatures stay well above freezing as the precip nears its' end. Some snow may mix in very late with any lingering showers, but little accumulation appears likely at this time.

Enjoy the two days of warm weather, we'll look to more winter weather by Wednesday night.

Winter Storm: Feb. 20-21

The quick clipper that was expected to bring a quick snowfall to much of northeast Iowa has taken shape and appears to pack a decent punch for the early half of this weekend. Models and NWS forecasts agree on the northeast half of the state seeing an inch or more of snowfall accumulation during the night and early tomorrow. Parts of the state may see 3-6 inches of snow during the overnight, mainly for east-central Iowa, where this snow may also pose travel problems well into Saturday due to blowing and drifting. For the snowfall accumulations of 3-6", a Winter Weather Advisory has been issued, while areas that are expected to see this snowfall and maybe slightly higher localized amounts with the blowing snow a Winter Storm Warning has been issued.

The snow should come to an end by late Saturday morning, and allow sunny skies for much of the weekend. Temperatures are likely to remain near or below freezing until Monday when a warm-up beings. Mid-week temperatures could be well into the 40s and even 50s across parts of western Iowa!

February Winter Storm(s)

Just a quick update with a recap of yesterday's snowfall totals, and a look at the next winter storm that may effect our area come Tuesday into Wednesday. Below is an image of the snowfall totals across the state, with the heaviest areas near Omaha/Council Bluffs, and then also near Des Moines. Traveling was trecherous yesterday with snow melting and re-freezing on roadways... This snow looks to stick around for a while, at least until our next winter storm can add to the totals.




The next winter storm is taking aim at Iowa once again. Significant snowfall is a possibility, but also is the chance of mixed precipitation over the state with rain/snow mixtures. The latest graphic from the NWS shows their initial thoughts, later updates will address this winter storm.

Winter Storm: Feb. 13-14 Update #2

A quick update this morning on what you can expect for snowfall totals through this evening. A Winter Storm Warning is in effect for areas of southwest Iowa where snowfall may begin this morning and continue through the afternoon hours. Total accumulations of 4-7 inches are likely, with some locally heavier amounts. Other parts of south-central Iowa have been put under a Winter Weather Advisory as snow will begin this afternoon and continue through this evening leaving 2-5 inches of snow on the ground.

Other parts of the state may see snow, but little accumulation is expected. Traveling may still be hazardous over areas of the state with the snowfall, thus be alert when the snow is falling as it may be heavy at times.

Beyond this snow, expect a fairly clear and sunny weekend with temperatures in the 20s and 30s across the state for highs, and single digits to the teens for lows. The next chance of precipitation will come next Tuesday as the chance for a wintery mix enters the forecast.

Winter Storm: Feb. 13-14 Update #1

The storm totals with the upcoming winter storm are in limbo with the latest model runs backing down on total snowfall accumulations. This afternoon's latest runs continued to back down on snowfall amounts, the NAM specifically took the storm even well below warning criteria. With the system coming together rather quickly over the central plains, and falling apart even faster during the afternoon hours on Friday it is likely that much of the state will not see greater than 4 inches of snow. Areas of southwest Iowa have been put under a Winter Storm Warning and will likely see 4-7 inches of snow by Friday evening. Other areas across southern Iowa will likely see 2-6 inches of snowfall, with isolated amounts in the 8-10+ range. These isolated higher amounts will be caused by elevated instability, which will likely create bands of thundersnow that will accumulate snow quickly during the afternoon/evening hours. Once north of Highway 20, total snowfall accumulations should be under 3 inches, with the Iowa/Minnesota border receiving little if any snow from this system.

Expect other parts of southern Iowa that are currently under at Winter Storm Watch may only be upgraded to advisory criteria with mentioning of isolated areas receiving significant snowfall. Another update is likely later tonight...

Winter Storm: Feb. 13-14

For the past 36 hours the eyes have been on this upcoming winter storm that will move a low over northern Missouri, putting southern Iowa in the favorable spot for receiving significant snowfall accumulations. Forecast models have continued to show a similar track throughout their latest runs, and continue to show snowfall accumulations of 6-10 inches or greater over southern Iowa. The continued forecast of this significant snow has prompted the NWS to issue a Winter Storm Watch for the entire state south of Highway 30.

As a low pressure system forms over western Kansas/Oklahoma during the nighttime hours on Thursday, the low should move to the northeast through northern Missouri on Friday. Snow should begin along the western borders of Iowa during the early afternoon hours, and spread across the entire state by Midnight on Friday. The snow should begin to taper off over western Iowa by sunrise on Saturday, and end by Noon on Saturday throughout the state. Total accumulations should be in the 6-10 inch range for areas south of Highway 30 to near the IA/MO border, with areas between Highway 30 and Highway 20 also receiving 3-6 inches. Within the heaviest amounts of snow, some isolated heavier amounts in the 10-15 inch range is easily possible. This is due to some elevated instability that will allow for the possibility of thundersnow, with 1+ inch per hour rates becoming up to 2 inches per hour in bands of thundersnow. More updates likely as Friday nears...

70 Degree Temperature Swing!

I don't believe you can complain about any temperatures that are at least above zero after the past two days! I've managed the trek to and from campus over the past three days, approximately six miles, in an average temperature around -15 degrees and a wind chill near -30!! The past two nights (Wednesday and Thursday) have had lows ranging from the mid teens to the 20s and even 30s, below zero! This type of cold has not been felt in 13 years across the state of Iowa, and thankfully it is finally coming to an end. While chilly today, temperature will slowly rise through the day and even through most of the night and lead us into temperatures that are some 60 to 70 degrees warmer than last nights' lows.

A weak disturbance is clipping parts of the state today leading to a few snow flurries and the like. Highs today under mainly cloudy skies will still manage to be above zero from the single digits to near 20 from northeast to southwest. Tonights' lows will be right around the same values and temperatures either hold steady or slowly rise overnight. Saturday's highs will be in the mid 20s to mid 30s from north to south across the state and will continue to hover around those same highs on both Sunday and Monday. Lows over the weekend will range from the upper single digits to near 20 from northeast to southwest.

Into next week we'll see nice westerly winds that will create some downsloping for much of the plains states. This warm wind will allow much of the snow across southwest Iowa to begin melting and maybe even disappear altogether by mid-week. Highs on Tuesday and Wednesday will be in the upper 20s, 30s and lower 40s from northeast to southwest across the state. Lows will be in the teens for the state for both nights as well... Our next storm system doesn't look to come into the area until Thursday next week, so enjoy the upcoming warm weather!!

Winter Storm (Jan. 13-14) Recap

Another impressive clipper system struck the state last night and into today, and behind its' wake we are left with frigid temperatures in the negative teens and twenties for tonight and in the single digits below zero for tomorrow. The low pressure system tracked out of the Dakotas and over western Iowa, then took its' eastward turn and moved along I-80 during the night last night. This left a swatch of snowfall of 6"+ from Algona through Waterloo/Cedar Falls and nearing the Cedar Rapids area. Other parts of the state still saw 3-6 inches, with western and southern thirds receiving a dusting to 2 inches (Graphic Below). No matter the amount of snow, the cold temperatures and strong winds this afternoon provided hazardous travel conditions and required a majority of schools throughout the state to cancel classes. The winds have begun to die down this evening and should continue to do so throughout the nighttime hours, however, they will still be high enough to warrant wind chills in the -30 to -45 range across much of the state when combined with temperatures in the -10 to -30 range!

Expect sunny skies tomorrow, but highs only in the single digits below zero for much of the state at best. Lows on Thursday night will once again be in the negative teens and twenties, just a few degrees warmer than tonight. Another small shot of snow is possible on Friday/Saturday for parts of the state before we begin to see a slight warm-up. As the strong ridge responsible for well-above normal temperatures in the western third of the United States creeps slightly east we'll be able to see temperatures at least near the freezing mark during Sunday and through early next week.

January 14 Snow Totals



January 14 Snow Depth

Winter Storm (Jan. 13-14) Update #1

A Winter Weather Advisory has been expanded to the southwest to include more counties in the state of Iowa. This has been done as forecast models have came together on a solution that brings the low pressure system south out of the Dakotas, and then east/southeast over the southern third of the state. This path is favorable for snowfall to occur across much of the state, with accumulations likely in the 2-5 inch range for areas north of a Sioux City to Des Moines to Ottumwa line. While this snow should begin to occur this evening over much of the state and continue through the overnight hours, winds after the event may still pose a blowing snow threat for parts of the state.

While most of the state is looking at a general 2-5 inches of snowfall, there is hints at a band of snowfall that may lead to as much as 7 inches of snowfall across parts of the state. The low pressure system is already conducive to banding of snowfall as shown by current radar over the Dakotas, and it is expected that this type of situation shall continue into the evening and overnight over Iowa. Currently the Des Moines NWS office believes that this band may be most likely along a line from Algona to Washington line. Additional updates tonight may discuss this heavy snow possibility...

Winter Storm (Jan. 13-14)

Less than 24 hours after our previous storm has ended we are looking at another quick clipper to move near the state and give us additional snowfall. Snowfall amounts will vary from less than an inch in southwest Iowa, to 4-6 inches being possible across northeast Iowa. Winter Weather Advisories have been issued for areas of the state where snowfall is expected to be greater than 3 inches. This snowfall should begin this evening over much of the state, and continue through the nighttime hours. As the snowfall begins to taper off tomorrow morning, the winds will once again increase to 20-30 mph and will likely create blowing snow and some ground-blizzard conditions. Thus expect some hazardous travel conditions from late this evening through the overnight, and likely well into tomorrow morning where the snowfall and winds will combine to create low visibilities and drifting on roadways.

Additional storm updates are likely later tonight...